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Does private mean better? Evaluating economic benefits and safety outcomes of a state highway concession

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  • Bianchi, André Giavina
  • Mattos, Enlinson
  • Wink Junior, Marcos Vinicio
  • Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira

Abstract

This paper explores the impact of road infrastructure investment through the concession model in São Paulo on local economies and road safety. Utilizing difference-in-differences and synthetic control methodologies, our study assesses the effects of such investments on residential electricity consumption and the incidence of fatal road accidents. Our findings reveal a positive impact of highway concessions on local income, with an increase ranging between 3.0% and 5.0%, or R$ 1266 to R$ 2161 in GDP per capita, based on the correlation between GDP and electricity consumption. Moreover, a 50% reduction in fatal accidents following the concession is observed. Last, we calculate the net present value (NPV) of the economic impact resulting from reduced accidents on concession-operated roads, estimated at over R$ 444 million across the concession period. The results suggest a substantial positive economic impact of public and private switching services.

Suggested Citation

  • Bianchi, André Giavina & Mattos, Enlinson & Wink Junior, Marcos Vinicio & Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira, 2026. "Does private mean better? Evaluating economic benefits and safety outcomes of a state highway concession," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:117:y:2026:i:c:s0739885926000673
    DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101770
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation

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