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Skeptical and credulous belief updating under black box recommendations

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  • Yanagita, Shohei

Abstract

This paper characterizes a simple model of belief updating in response to recommendations from black boxes, recommenders whose information-generating processes are complex and opaque. In particular, we focus on two types of reactions to recommendations. The first is a skeptical response, in which individuals receive recommendations that are highly inconsistent with their prior beliefs and respond skeptically by updating their beliefs conservatively. The second is a credulous response, in which individuals readily accept recommendations that are aligned with their prior beliefs. These two contrasting reactions are jointly captured under the resulting updating rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanagita, Shohei, 2026. "Skeptical and credulous belief updating under black box recommendations," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matsoc:v:140:y:2026:i:c:s0165489626000090
    DOI: 10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2026.102502
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    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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