Formalizing expert knowledge to compare alternative management plans: Sociological perspective to the future management of Baltic salmon stocks

Designing and implementing long-term management plans is difficult both because of the complexity of the fisheries system, and the behaviour of humans. We compared four alternative management plans for the Baltic salmon stocks through approaching experts who interpreted and expressed the views of different stakeholder groups on the options. The focus of the study was on stakeholders' commitment to the alternative management plans. Committing enhances the probability of achieving the ultimate objective of a plan, while if stakeholders do not commit, the effects of the plan may be less predictable. Thus commitment is an important part of implementation uncertainty in fisheries management. We present how we coupled qualitative analysis with probabilistic Bayesian networks in analysing expert knowledge related to alternative long term management plans in terms of group commitment. Using a Bayesian net provides potential for creating a holistic picture of a fishery by combining the data describing fishers' commitment with biological data regarding fish stock dynamics and with economic data analyzing economically sound fisheries management.