Can we get better information by any alternative to conventional statistical approaches for analysing land allocation decision problems? A case study on lowland rice varieties

This study conducted a social survey on 300 representatives of Nepali farming households to demonstrate robustness of a structural modelling approach for examining and explaining complex land allocation decision problems of managers. It tested the approach specifically for investigating drivers and barriers of farmers’ decisions for allocating lowland under three kinds (hybrid, conventionally improved and local) of rice varieties. The study required working on both irrelevant choice and disutility choice decision problems besides land allocation problems of all individual varieties. It formulated the research problems on a multiportfolios allocation framework and the empirical model in the structural equations modelling setup. The model was estimated in Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) method. The findings of the model were compared with the results of the standard Tobit model (a conventional method). The estimates of the FIML are found better than the Tobit in terms of satisfying the assumptions of the allocation model, properties of standard errors and theoretical expectations of the variables under investigation. The improvements in the estimates make a noticeable change in prediction impacts and policy weightages of the explanatory factors which potentially alter the policy priorities of decision makers. The study identified many interesting factors determining the farmers’ decisions of allocating lowland between the varieties, and resulting discriminatory benefit distribution between social groups. The study with the comprehensive information provides policy makers an avenue to compare and understand managers’ decision problems of allocating lands in politically preferred and not preferred uses, and contributes in making effective policy decisions. This study discussed on the roles of crop research and community support policies and practices for emerging new problems of seed supply and exacerbating social exclusion in the farming communities​. Some policy solutions are also discussed in line with the findings of the study.