Spatial spillovers and inequality in forest carbon emissions: Implications for land-use policy in Ethiopia

Forest carbon gross emissions from deforestation and degradation arise from interconnected socio-economic and ecological processes, including demographic pressure, urban expansion, and land-use transformation. In Ethiopia, these drivers exhibit strong spatial interdependence and temporal persistence, generating heterogeneous emission patterns that conventional econometric approaches may not sufficiently capture, especially the dynamic spatial characteristics of forest carbon emissions. This study examines the drivers of forest carbon gross emissions (FCGE) across time, space, and emission intensities using an integrated spatiotemporal framework that combines dynamic panel GMM estimation with spatial econometric models and the dynamic spatial Durbin model (DSDM)—alongside quantile regression analysis. Dynamic panel results show that population growth significantly increases FCGE, while the significant lagged FCGE term indicates strong persistence in forest carbon emissions over time. DSDM estimates indicate significant temporal persistence and spatial spillover effects, confirming that FCGE are driven by processes that are simultaneously dynamic and spatial, with stronger influences arising from boundary adjacency than from road network connectivity and distance decay. A 10% relative increase in urbanization is associated with an approximate 32% rise in emissions. Quantile regression results indicate strong asymmetries, with demographic, market, and land-use pressures exerting larger effects in high-emission regions. Overall, the findings underscore the need for coordinated, region-specific policies to mitigate FCGE, including early interventions to prevent persistent forest disturbances, targeted protection of vulnerable forest frontiers, stronger regulation of urban expansion, and locally tailored forest restoration strategies. The study provides robust, systems-based evidence to enhance REDD + implementation and climate-resilient environmental governance in Ethiopia and beyond.