Ecological impacts and countermeasures for future solar photovoltaic expansion: Based on the assessment and planning of ecosystem services

The accelerated development of solar photovoltaic (PV) is crucial for achieving global climate goals, yet it poses significant ecological challenges due to the extensive land occupation. The “PV + ” land use model could be a countermeasure. By quantifying the ecological cost of multiple PV expansion scenarios in China and the potential ecological compensation capacity of “PV + ” model, we present an optimized energy expansion pathway. From the perspective of ecosystem services, we found that historical PV expansion caused an ecological loss of $2.15 billion (0.78 USD/m2). Without energy pathway optimization, the accelerated expansion required to meet 2050 targets would lead to ecological losses of $18.56 to $37.11 billion. However, pathway optimization can reduce those losses by 58–81%. Our analysis based on field investigations revealed that the "PV + " system holds significant potential for ecological compensation. Agriculture–PV has the highest capacity (0.63 USD/m2), even exceeding the pre-construction value of cropland, while Grassland–PV and Gobi and Desert-PV also achieve ecological restoration. Prioritizing the development of suitable land or barren land is the optimal expansion path to achieve a triple-win situation in energy, economics, and ecology. The power generation capacity of these pathways could reach 7.21–19.75 PWh annually by 2050, while reducing ecological costs to 0.09–0.19 USD/m2. This study provides guidance for ecologically considerate PV expansion planning and supports the sustainable management of PV power plants, offering a replicable solution for optimizing global renewable energy expansion.