Urban form under China’s politico-economic transition: The role of decentralization, marketization, globalization, and regionalization in the Greater Bay Area

Urban form is undergoing rapid transformation amid global politico-economic transitions, yet the mechanisms shaping these changes in non-Western contexts remain under-theorized. Taking China’s transition as an example, we reconceptualize the transition by adding regionalization into the traditional framework of decentralization, marketization, and globalization, highlighting the role of regional cooperation. We delineate the evolution of urban form through morphological analysis in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) from 2010 to 2019, and employ regression methods to validate the pathways through which this extended transitional framework influences form outcomes. Empirical results demonstrate that urban form is co-shaped by local governments’ fiscal expenditure, land market prices, foreign direct investment, and the intensity of inter-city cooperation. A compound growth model integrating industrial land, transport networks, and real estate is emerging as a significant mechanism forging urban spatial structure. Overall, our study reaffirms the pivotal impact of local government play among the various actors shaping urban development and spatial configuration in China. While regionalization has shown tangible effects in enhancing inter-city collaboration and reducing regional disparities, it has yet to fundamentally transform the entrenched governance logic through which local governments leverage land markets to drive urban growth.