Impact of reverse rural-urban migration on farmland transfer: Empirical evidence from the China Family Panel Studies

The mobility of rural agricultural labor is critical for the efficient allocation of farmland resources. Earlier studies have primarily focused on the impact of rural out-migration on farmland transfer. However, reverse rural-urban migration (RRUM), as an integral component of bidirectional urban-rural factor flows, has received comparatively limited scholarly attention. Therefore, this study draws on data from four waves of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) and employs Probit models to examine the effects of RRUM on farmland transfer. It also investigates whether household income and regional consumption moderate these effects. The results indicate that RRUM significantly promotes farmland transfer-in but does not exert a statistically significant impact on farmland transfer-out. The observed spatial heterogeneity indicates that RRUM has a stronger positive effect on farmland transfer-in in Eastern and Central China, while its impact on promoting farmland transfer-out is more pronounced in Northeastern and Western China. Moreover, households headed by older farmers are more inclined to transfer-in farmland. Moderation analysis further shows that household economic status negatively moderates the effect of RRUM on farmland transfer-in, whereas regional consumption expenditure negatively moderates its impact on both farmland transfer-in and transfer-out. RRUM has a significant positive effect on whether farmers pay rent after farmland transfer-in, but no significant impact on their likelihood of collecting rent after farmland transfer-out. The generalized linear model (GLM) results further suggest that RRUM has no significant effect on either rent payment or rent collection by farmers. These findings provide empirical evidence of the dynamics of farmland transfer in China under bidirectional urban-rural factor flows and offer guidance for designing region-specific farmland-transfer policies that promote global sustainable agricultural development.