Urban expansion, informality and climate change in intermediate cities in Latin America and the Caribbean: Challenges and opportunities

The lack of urban planning in Latin America’s medium-sized cities, especially in the Caribbean, has resulted in uncontrolled expansion with severe implications in the context of climate emergencies. This expansion manifests through two intertwined processes: “urban sprawl,” understood as outward, land‑consuming (often low‑density) growth, and “informal settlements,” referring to residential areas developed outside formal planning, regulatory, or tenure frameworks. Although analytically distinct, both dynamics frequently overlap in intermediate Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), where peripheral growth is predominantly driven by informal urbanisation. These cities/urban peripheries are highly vulnerable and urgently need to integrate the climate dimension into their urban development strategies. This paper analyses the scientific and grey literature published between 2014 and 2024 on urban sprawl in medium-sized cities to identify the extent to which literature incorporates the challenges of climate change. Artificial intelligence techniques were applied when searching and reviewing academic and technical sources. The results show that scientific literature is oriented towards explanation and modelling (Geographic Information Systems (GIS), simulation, artificial intelligence), while the grey literature emphasises implementation and monitoring. Both converge in the use of GIS and complement each other: the scientific production provides diagnosis and analysis; the technical, action and applicability. This division of roles, however, creates a functional asynchrony: peer-reviewed scientific production typically operates on medium- to long-term research and publication timelines, whereas technical documentation responds to shorter decision windows and implementation deadlines. This temporal misalignment, in turn, highlights the need to reinforce implementation-oriented instruments for climate adaptation (especially in highly exposed Caribbean intermediate cities) so that rapid decision-making can more effectively draw upon and operationalise scientific evidence.