Land decentralization and grain production: Evidence from Chinese counties

Land decentralization is a major component of China’s land governance reforms, but its implications for food security remain unclear. Using panel data from 1659 Chinese counties from 2003 to 2018, this study applies a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to examine its effect on grain production. The results show that land decentralization significantly reduces county-level grain output, with stronger effects in urban agglomerations and major grain-producing regions. Mechanism analysis shows that land decentralization expands construction land, reduces cultivated land, and limits the scale of grain cultivation. It also worsens cultivated land production conditions and lowers grain yield per unit area, especially in areas with more rugged terrain. These findings suggest that, under the cultivated land requisition-compensation balance system, some areas may replace high-quality farmland with lower-quality land, which can reduce cultivated land productivity. The study reveals a potential conflict between local development autonomy and food security in the context of rapid urbanization. It also provides empirical evidence for sustainable land management policies.