Socioeconomic and policy-triggered land use/land cover change in the Alwero Watershed, Gambela Region, Ethiopia

Policy‑triggered land-use/land-cover (LULC) change is a critical global challenge, particularly in tropical regions, where agricultural expansion and investment policies are accelerating forest loss and ecosystem degradation. In the study area, most prior studies emphasized biophysical dynamics, with limited attention to how land policies, tenure insecurity, refugee inflows, resettlement programs, and cross-border pastoralist mobility shape LULC change. Therefore, this study addresses these gaps by analyzing the association between socioeconomic dynamics, land-related policies, and LULC change from 1987 to 2025. A mixed-methods approach combined analysis of multi-temporal Landsat imagery with key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and policy reviews. Quantitative analysis showed that farmland area expanded from 100,998 ha (38.9%) in 1987–181,953 ha (70.1%) in 2025. Forest cover declined from 9680.7 ha (3.7%) to 7445.3 ha (2.8%), while wetlands and grasslands decreased from 41.4% to 21.1%, nearly halving their extent. Qualitative evidence also highlights the influxes of displaced communities, degradation of wetlands and protected areas, declining traditional livelihoods, and intensified land-use conflicts. Commercial land leases under Proclamation No. 280/2002 and 456/2005 were strongly associated with farmland expansion, while wetland loss was linked to cross-border pastoralist inflows. Settlement growth was driven by government-led resettlement and villagization programs, compounded by large-scale refugee influxes, which collectively increased flood risks, vegetation loss, and biodiversity decline. Weak policy enforcement, tenure insecurity, and poor management of refugee settlements, cross-border pastoral movements, and prioritization of investment for large-scale agricultural investments were identified as key drivers associated with LULC change. The study calls for institutional reforms to formalize customary land rights, regulate refugee settlements and pastoral mobility, strengthen participatory watershed management, and promote eco-tourism to achieve equity and resilience. Overall, the findings also underscore the urgent need for evidence-based policies that balance economic ambition with ecological resilience, tenure security, and social equity.