Mapping socio-ecological factors, built-up expansion and land use change: Spatial analysis and insights for planning and restoration

Urban development is perceived as an indicator of economic advancement and opportunity. However, rapid BUA expansion exerts land pressure, acting as a catalyst for land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes. This study examined the role of socio-environmental factors, including landscape types (LTs), geomorphology and topography, in BUA dynamics and LULC changes across urban, peri-urban and rural areas between 1842 and 2019. The spatial analysis for sixty randomly selected study sites (a total of 24,000 ha), located in the Central European region, employed ArcGIS tools, integrating historical cadastral maps (Stable Cadastre, 1842) with CORINE LULC data (2019), and statistical techniques, including Binomial Logistic Regression. Findings revealed that total BUA increased by 84.7%, mainly in warm lowlands, primarily replacing arable land (67.23% of the total LULC changes). The built-up growth encompassed a mixed-sized building ranging from 4 to 32,488 m2 per unit through infill and edge expansion in urban areas (100–500 m distance from the historical built‑up fabric), and small-sized, clustered (0–50 m distance) BUA expansion around rural settlement cores. The Hot Spot Analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) of recent BUA shows predominant clustering of large-sized buildings in the lowlands, which together account for 33.15%. Population density across 4–11 categories emerged as the most influential predictor. The study demonstrated that the socio-ecological factors act as opportunities (uniform topography of warm lowlands) and constraints (complex topography of cold highlands) for BUA expansion. From a land‑use policy perspective, the study prioritises spatially adaptive, ecologically integrated land‑use governance and restoration strategies in response to accelerating socio‑environmental change.