Socioecological pathways shape the decoupling of population growth and land loss across Sub-Saharan Africa

Achieving development within planetary boundaries faces its most acute challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa, where rapid population growth intensifies land use pressure. Yet, it remains unclear whether, where, and to what extent population growth can decouple from land loss across the region. Here we address this gap by developing a multiscale research framework to examine population and land loss decoupling from 1990 to 2050 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We combine Tapio elasticity analysis with a Geographically Weighted Elastic Net model to quantify decoupling at pixel, national, and biome scales. Our results show that decoupling is limited in extent and structurally weak across scales. Most pixels exhibited no change, and where change occurred, weak decoupling (WD) dominated with elasticities clustered near zero. Spatial heterogeneity is evident, with localized hotspots of strong decoupling (SD) and coupling coexist. Ecological context conditions decoupling capacity; humid and semi-humid forest systems maintaining more stable decoupling than dryland and Mediterranean systems. Over time, stronger divergence in the 1990s weakens toward a more constrained quasi-equilibrium. Future decoupling trajectories are pathway dependent. SSP1 and SSP2 stabilize WD, whereas SSP3 and SSP4 slightly increase SD prevalence while reducing weak negative decoupling. These findings indicate that land loss dynamics in SSA are shaped not by population growth alone, but by the interaction of ecological conditions, spatial scale, and socioeconomic development pathways. This emphasizes the need for land use policies that are spatially differentiated, ecologically sensitive, and aligned with long-term development pathways.