Exploring land consolidation solutions towards land use low-carbon transition: Evidence from Shenzhen, China

Land consolidation is increasingly recognized as a key instrument for promoting low-carbon land-use transitions. However, its effectiveness varies under different policy orientations, and how to design strategies for whole-region integrated land consolidation remains insufficiently understood. We develop a systematic approach to identify and prioritize land consolidation potential under alternative land-use optimization pathways. Four low-carbon land-use scenarios are constructed for Shenzhen, China, and future land-use configurations are simulated using a multi-objective optimization approach coupled with the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model. Land consolidation potential into six types, which enables spatial prioritization of consolidation interventions across the whole region. Results reveal strong scenario dependence in land consolidation patterns. High-priority areas are dominated by ecological restoration for carbon sequestration (37.16%) under the carbon emission reduction preference scenario, construction intensive consolidation area (99.54%) under the economic development preference scenario, and ecological protection for carbon sequestration (98.00%) under the ecological protection preference scenario. Under the balanced multi-objective scenario, no high-potential areas are identified; instead, medium-potential zones dominated by ecological protection for carbon sequestration (97.22%) prevail, indicating that ecological land remains critical to overall land-use benefits. The study advances a multifunctional land consolidation framework that links land-use zoning with policy objectives and provides theoretical insights into coordinated land-use optimization and practical implications for differentiated land consolidation strategies in rapidly urbanizing regions.