Unraveling the spatial dynamics and mechanism heterogeneity of land transfer on carbon emission: Evidence from China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt

In the context of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, effective land management emerges as a paramount policy priority worldwide for carbon mitigation and low-carbon transitions. Using the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YEB) as a case study, this study systematically explores the mechanisms and heterogeneity of land transfer’s impact on carbon emissions, taking spatial spillover effects into account. The findings reveal that: (1) newly allocated built-up land has a markedly stronger effect on carbon emissions compared to the redevelopment of existing land, primarily due to the conversion of agricultural and forest land and the built-up of new infrastructure. (2) In 2015–2022, there is an increase in land transfers for industrial, public service, and transportation purposes at the outskirts, while residential and commercial land allocations have decreased, particularly in the lower reaches of the YEB. (3) Industrial land transfers have the most substantial impact on carbon emissions, while emissions from residential and commercial land can be mitigated through energy-efficient technologies and green building standards. (4) Land transfer area (LTA) is positively correlated with carbon emissions, while land marketization (LM) shows a negative influence. Significant spatial autocorrelation was also observed, underscoring the complex spatial dynamics at play in land use and carbon emissions. Based on the findings, policy recommendations are proposed on differentiated land supply management system, optimizing land marketization process, ecological and environmental standards and guidelines to mitigate carbon emissions through integrated land resource management across regions.