Unveiling Cerrado deforestation: A comparative analysis among Brazilian states

The Brazilian Cerrado is one of the world’s most threatened tropical savanna biomes, yet the institutional determinants of deforestation across states remain insufficiently understood. While previous research has focused mainly on economic drivers such as agricultural expansion, less attention has been given to subnational environmental governance. In Brazil, licensing and enforcement responsibilities are partly decentralized, generating substantial variation in regulatory frameworks across states. This study examines how these institutional differences are associated with deforestation dynamics in the Cerrado between 2018 and 2023. We combine satellite-based deforestation alerts with georeferenced information on rural properties from the Cadastro Ambiental Rural (CAR) and estimate three complementary models: a spatio-temporal decomposition of deforestation alerts, a land-conversion model for deforested area, and a logit model for clearing within registered rural properties. The results reveal marked cross-state heterogeneity. Persistent upward long-run trends are concentrated in frontier states of the MATOPIBA region, especially Bahia, Maranhão, Tocantins, and Piauí, whereas other states display flatter or more cyclical trajectories. Clearings are systematically larger in states with simplified licensing arrangements, consistent with the view that regulatory flexibility facilitates large-scale land conversion. At the property level, soybean and pasture expansion strongly increase deforestation risk, and when deforestation occurs within CAR-registered properties it tends to involve larger cleared areas. Overall, the findings show that state-level environmental governance is closely associated with where, when, and how deforestation occurs in the Cerrado, underscoring the need for stronger and better-coordinated land-use regulation across Brazilian states.