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Incentives for the adoption of maize–soybean rotation in Northeast China: Modelling the impact of future subsidy policies

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Shiting
  • Jia, Xiangping
  • Möhring, Anke
  • Grovermann, Christian
  • Muller, Adrian
  • Wu, Zeyu
  • Chen, Yuquan

Abstract

Preserving soil health is a global priority for achieving sustainable food systems. Although crop rotation is widely recognised as an effective soil-conserving practice, adoption remains limited in many countries due to persistent profitability gaps relative to monoculture. Using an agent-based model and Northeast China as a case, we estimate the subsidy levels and policy portfolios required to scale up maize–soybean rotation. The simulations show that an annual rotation consistently outperforms a biennial system, and adoption increases with subsidy intensity but exhibits diminishing marginal returns. On average, each additional 1000 Chinese Yuan (CNY) is associated with a 7% increase in the adoption rate. Importantly, farmers’ awareness of rotation benefits and their willingness to adopt substantially promote diffusion, demonstrating that non-monetary measures—such as education, demonstrations, and extension services—greatly enhance the effectiveness of financial incentives. At a subsidy level of 9000 CNY/ha, the adoption rate of the combined non-monetary measures is 23.0% higher than that of monetary subsidies alone. Our analysis indicates that subsidy programs become effective only when monetary incentives are integrated with these non-monetary measures. Without such complementary support, financial incentives not only have limited influence on adoption but also risk imposing a substantial fiscal burden.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Shiting & Jia, Xiangping & Möhring, Anke & Grovermann, Christian & Muller, Adrian & Wu, Zeyu & Chen, Yuquan, 2026. "Incentives for the adoption of maize–soybean rotation in Northeast China: Modelling the impact of future subsidy policies," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:167:y:2026:i:c:s0264837726001079
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.108023
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    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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