Decommissioning gas stations in Seoul: Determinants of closure and land-use transitions

Global decarbonization is rendering legacy infrastructure like gas stations obsolete. This study analyzes gas station closure dynamics in Seoul, South Korea (2009–2023), treating them as stranded assets in a city undergoing a rapid energy transition. Using a novel mixed-method design that integrates geographic information system (GIS), logistic regression, and qualitative interviews, we analyze 223 decommissioned stations to link closure determinants with post-closure land-use transitions. Our findings revealed that sites in commercial zones were 82% more likely to close (OR = 1.818, p < 0.05). Additionally, greater competition and proximity to subways emerged as significant predictors of closure (p < 0.1). Contrary to conventional assumptions, closures were driven by location-specific economic pressures and urban structural factors rather than by declining fuel demand alone. Post-closure land-use analysis revealed diverse transformation pathways. While the transitions were dominated by residential (27.8%) and commercial (27.3%) developments, 45.7% of the sites fell within district-unit planning zones, indicating a strategic urban planning influence. These findings provide crucial insights for urban planners and policymakers to manage the transition of fossil-fuel infrastructure in the context of sustainable urban development.