Typology-based spatial modeling of urban block commercial vitality: Evidence from Shenzhen for land use planning

Commercial vitality, or the ability of urban commercial facilities to attract and maintain human activity, is a key indicator of economic performance, urban vitality, and spatial equity. Current research focuses on commercial agglomeration areas, overlooking dispersed activities within heterogeneous urban forms. This study develops a typology-driven spatial framework for block commercial vitality (BCV) prediction through spatial feature engineering that integrates multi-source urban data with neighborhood catchment area (NCA). Shenzhen serves as the empirical setting, with real-time population flow data as a BCV proxy. Five categories of spatial features, demographic exposure, commercial gravity, small business intensity, transportation accessibility, and spatial configuration, were extracted to delineate the urban physical environment. Urban blocks were classified into nine morphological types by the Spacematrix method to place predictions in context. Three prediction models were compared, and the Random Forest regression performed best in predictive accuracy in empirical analysis. Feature importance analysis identified catering density, permanent population, and commercial gravity as the most influential predictors, while transportation and spatial configuration exert secondary influence. The framework indicates a stronger predictive performance for future-oriented block types compared to transitional mid-rise types. It provides methodological insights that are potentially transferable to other urban contexts to guide commercial planning, zoning optimization, and target renewal interventions at the block level.