Predicting ecological security patterns and network resilience under land-use change: Hexi Inland River Basin, China

Climatic variation and anthropogenic activities cause drastic land-use change and seriously threaten local ecosystems, making ecological security assessment in arid regions a global priority. We proposed an innovative quantitative research framework for ecological security patterns (ESPs) construction, prediction, and resilience measurement based on land-use simulations. Using the Hexi Inland River Basin (HIRB) as a case study, we examined ESPs' evolution under Ecological Protection (EP), Natural Development (ND), and Economic Development (ED) models for 2030–2050, and proposed targeted governance strategies. Results: 1) In 2000–2020, ecological sources in the HIRB exhibited greater distribution in the south, ecological corridor quality improved overall, ecological pinch points increased exponentially, while ecological barriers decreased annually. 2) In 2030–2050, future ESPs showed the EP model as optimal, with the largest sources and fewest barriers; under the ND model, regional ESPs at the middle level; under the ED model, key ecological elements were at low levels, representing a low-development model. 3) Vulnerability and connectivity robustness showed ‘EP model>ED model>ND model’, indicating the EP model being superior in ecological network resilience in 2050. 4) This region should establish a regional governance pattern of ‘One Screen, One Horizontal, Three Verticals, and Multiple Green Points’ based on the EP model, and more attention should be paid to the “Green Points” located in downstream desert areas. Moreover, it is essential to further prioritize and refine land tenure systems to ensure the pragmatic implementation of this governance pattern. These findings provide scientific support for local governments in formulating ecological policies and offer evidence-based solutions for ESPs optimization in other arid and semi-arid inland river basins worldwide.