Impacts of climate and land use changes on the cultivable area for winter wheat and their economic benefits in China

Ensuring sufficient cropland is crucial for achieving national food security. Both climate and land use changes have profound impacts on the area available for crop production. Using the High-stable index (HSI) method, this study aimed to: (1) analyze the influence of climate change on the potential suitable planting area for winter wheat; (2) determine the influences of climate and land use changes on the future cultivable area for winter wheat; (3) evaluate the economic benefits resulting from changes in the cultivable area caused by these factors. Results indicated that climate change would reduce the potential suitable planting area by 6.2 % and 3.1 % under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Land use change led to increase in the cultivable area of 37.0 % (RCP4.5) and 23.4 % (RCP8.5), respectively. Climate change would lead to a greater dispersion of potential suitable and cultivable areas for winter wheat. Compared to the baseline period, land use change could result in maximum annual average economic benefits of 59.84 billion USD under RCP4.5 and 39.58 billion USD under RCP8.5. Conversely, climate change could result in maximum annual average economic losses of 9.3 billion USD and 6.7 billion USD under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Future land use change has the potential to mitigate or offset the adverse effects of climate change on winter wheat growing areas. Considering the impacts of land tenure on field practices, land restoration, land use transfer, and land fragmentation, the combination of clearer top-level design of land use pattern and more flexible land transfer strategies will enable agricultural land to better withstand the adverse effects of climate change on. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers aiming to achieve food security in the context of climate and land use changes.