Characteristics and key drivers of virtual urban land flows in China

Understanding virtual urban land flows is crucial for assessing the environmental impacts of urbanization (SDG 11), optimizing land resource use (SDG 12), and addressing regional inequalities (SDG 10). This study employs an environmentally extended multi-regional input–output model to quantify interprovincial virtual urban land flows in China for 2007, 2012, and 2017, links them to actual urban built-up land to reveal the urban human-nature relationship. Social network analysis is used to reveal the overall spatial structure of flow networks and identify critical provinces, while Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation is applied to explore key drivers. The results show that virtual urban land embedded in interprovincial trade has become a structurally important component of China’s urbanization, with flows expanding rapidly and accounting for about 30 % of national urban built-up land. On average, 46.58 % of provinces’ urban land demand is met by other provinces. Flows are predominantly domestic and spatially uneven, with net transfers from eastern and northeastern provinces to central and western regions, where virtual land consumption in many cases exceeds local built-up land. The virtual land network has become denser and more interconnected over time, yet clear east–west and north–south gradients in centrality persist. Economic development, urban population density, migration, and fiscal capacity promote virtual land flows, whereas technological innovation reduces them, and spatial distance plays a relatively weak role. This study sheds new light on the telecoupled dynamics linking regional trade and urban expansion. The methodological framework is readily transferable to other countries and regions, and the findings offer practical guidance for policymakers seeking to optimize regional urbanization, industrial layout, and urban land management in China.