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Environmental performance and urban land competitiveness: Insights from mega sport event bidding outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Xiaoan
  • Hu, Lei
  • Wang, Jingyi
  • Zhang, Zhibo

Abstract

Mega sport event bidding increasingly requires strong environmental credentials, sustainability governance, and urban competitiveness. This study investigates 70 Olympic and FIFA World Cup bids from 1998 to 2020, using 15 environmental indicators spanning air, water, vegetation, and waste domains. Applying logistic regression, Random Forest, and XGBoost models, we identify key environmental determinants and employ SHAP analysis for interpretability. Results show that air quality is the most decisive signal, followed by water, vegetation, and waste management has gained importance since London 2012. Ante-event performance carries the greatest weight, and Olympic bids emphasize broad, legacy-oriented plans, whereas FIFA bids focus more on localized air pollution and sanitation. Host countries generally outperformed unsuccessful bidders in post-event indicators, confirming the value of credible pre-bid commitments. The findings underscore that environmental performance is now critical to event governance and provide actionable guidance for countries to integrate sustainability into bidding strategies and urban development.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Xiaoan & Hu, Lei & Wang, Jingyi & Zhang, Zhibo, 2026. "Environmental performance and urban land competitiveness: Insights from mega sport event bidding outcomes," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:163:y:2026:i:c:s0264837726000050
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107921
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