IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/lauspo/v163y2026ics0264837726000049.html

Optimizing county-level land use for sustainable photovoltaic development in China: A multi-scenario analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Xie, Xiaohuan
  • Cai, Senhong
  • Deng, Haifeng
  • Li, Shengyuan
  • Liu, Xin
  • Gou, Zhonghua

Abstract

Land scarcity in China intensifies conflicts between photovoltaic (PV) infrastructure and agricultural, ecological, and urban land uses. This study addresses the gap in county-level research by proposing a novel framework integrating land-type clustering, multi-objective optimization, and geospatial simulation to evaluate sustainable land use under PV expansion scenarios. Analyzing 562 counties in central and eastern China, counties are categorized into woodland-dominant, farmland-dominant, urban-dominant, and balanced types. Three scenarios are assessed: PV development (PV), business-as-usual (BS), and low-carbon emission (CE). The PV scenario balances BS and CE, curbing carbon source expansion while protecting farmland—e.g., farmland in Cangnan (woodland-dominant), Sheyang (farmland-dominant), and Lingbao (balanced) counties increased by 1.09 %, 2.35 %, and 1.1 % versus CE. Farmland-dominant and balanced counties show high adaptability, with economic and environmental benefits rising 67 % and 37 %. Urban-dominant counties have limited PV potential, and woodland-dominant counties are unsuitable for large-scale PV, with total benefits dropping 1 % and ecological impacts rising. Medium-density PV (80 % coverage) maximizes returns, with a 20.25-year payback. Policies should prioritize PV on agricultural and construction lands in farmland-dominant and balanced counties, while protecting ecology in urban- and woodland-dominant ones to support carbon neutrality.

Suggested Citation

  • Xie, Xiaohuan & Cai, Senhong & Deng, Haifeng & Li, Shengyuan & Liu, Xin & Gou, Zhonghua, 2026. "Optimizing county-level land use for sustainable photovoltaic development in China: A multi-scenario analysis," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:163:y:2026:i:c:s0264837726000049
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107920
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837726000049
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107920?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qiu, Tianzhi & Wang, Lunche & Lu, Yunbo & Zhang, Ming & Qin, Wenmin & Wang, Shaoqiang & Wang, Lizhe, 2022. "Potential assessment of photovoltaic power generation in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    2. Qingxiang Meng & Yanna Zheng & Qi Liu & Baolu Li & Hejie Wei, 2023. "Analysis of Spatiotemporal Variation and Influencing Factors of Land-Use Carbon Emissions in Nine Provinces of the Yellow River Basin Based on the LMDI Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, February.
    3. Zhang, Chen & Li, Zhixin & Jiang, Haihua & Luo, Yongqiang & Xu, Shen, 2021. "Deep learning method for evaluating photovoltaic potential of urban land-use: A case study of Wuhan, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    4. Chen, Qi & Li, Xinyuan & Zhang, Zhengjia & Zhou, Chao & Guo, Zhiling & Liu, Zhengguang & Zhang, Haoran, 2023. "Remote sensing of photovoltaic scenarios: Techniques, applications and future directions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    5. Manito, Alex R.A. & Lambais, George Rodrigues & Menillo, Rafael Braghieri & Alencar, Anaila Amaral de & Vieira, Bruno Jacomel & Fedrizzi, Maria Cristina & Almeida, Marcelo Pinho & Moraes, Moacir Tuzzi, 2026. "What to expect from agrivoltaic systems? A comprehensive review of experimental findings and field applications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    6. Dias, Luís & Gouveia, João Pedro & Lourenço, Paulo & Seixas, Júlia, 2019. "Interplay between the potential of photovoltaic systems and agricultural land use," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 725-735.
    7. Kurdgelashvili, Lado & Shih, Cheng-Hao & Yang, Fan & Garg, Mehul, 2019. "An empirical analysis of county-level residential PV adoption in California," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 321-333.
    8. Roy, Swapna & Ghosh, Biswajit, 2017. "Land utilization performance of ground mounted photovoltaic power plants: A case study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(PB), pages 1238-1246.
    9. Huang, Daquan & Huang, Jing & Liu, Tao, 2019. "Delimiting urban growth boundaries using the CLUE-S model with village administrative boundaries," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 422-435.
    10. Zhixin Zhang & Min Chen & Teng Zhong & Rui Zhu & Zhen Qian & Fan Zhang & Yue Yang & Kai Zhang & Paolo Santi & Kaicun Wang & Yingxia Pu & Lixin Tian & Guonian Lü & Jinyue Yan, 2023. "Carbon mitigation potential afforded by rooftop photovoltaic in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    11. Sai Nikhil Vodapally & Mohd Hasan Ali, 2022. "A Comprehensive Review of Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Technologies, Architecture, and Its Applications to Improved Efficiency," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, December.
    12. Song, Chenchen & Guo, Zhiling & Liu, Zhengguang & Hongyun, Zhang & Liu, Ran & Zhang, Haoran, 2024. "Application of photovoltaics on different types of land in China: Opportunities, status and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    13. Wang, Peng & Zhang, Shuainan & Pu, Yanru & Cao, Shuchao & Zhang, Yuhu, 2021. "Estimation of photovoltaic power generation potential in 2020 and 2030 using land resource changes: An empirical study from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    14. Guzman, Luis A. & Escobar, Francisco & Peña, Javier & Cardona, Rafael, 2020. "A cellular automata-based land-use model as an integrated spatial decision support system for urban planning in developing cities: The case of the Bogotá region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    15. Francesco Mancini & Benedetto Nastasi, 2020. "Solar Energy Data Analytics: PV Deployment and Land Use," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-18, January.
    16. Wang, Yubao & Zhen, Junjie, 2025. "Evaluating the economic and environmental impacts of distributed photovoltaic policy: Insights from county-level data in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    17. Wang, Yu & He, Jijiang & Chen, Wenying, 2021. "Distributed solar photovoltaic development potential and a roadmap at the city level in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    18. Zhang, Sufang & He, Yongxiu, 2013. "Analysis on the development and policy of solar PV power in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 393-401.
    19. Feuerbacher, Arndt & Herrmann, Tristan & Neuenfeldt, Sebastian & Laub, Moritz & Gocht, Alexander, 2022. "Estimating the economics and adoption potential of agrivoltaics in Germany using a farm-level bottom-up approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    20. Arán Carrión, J. & Espín Estrella, A. & Aznar Dols, F. & Zamorano Toro, M. & Rodríguez, M. & Ramos Ridao, A., 2008. "Environmental decision-support systems for evaluating the carrying capacity of land areas: Optimal site selection for grid-connected photovoltaic power plants," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 12(9), pages 2358-2380, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaohuan Xie & Haifeng Deng & Shengyuan Li & Zhonghua Gou, 2024. "Optimizing Land Use for Carbon Neutrality: Integrating Photovoltaic Development in Lingbao, Henan Province," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-18, January.
    2. Song, Chenchen & Guo, Zhiling & Liu, Zhengguang & Hongyun, Zhang & Liu, Ran & Zhang, Haoran, 2024. "Application of photovoltaics on different types of land in China: Opportunities, status and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. Jiang, Luguang & Liu, Ye & Yang, Liwen, 2026. "Rapid expansion of photovoltaic land in China's coastal regions: A doubling from 2020 to 2023," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Liu, Bingchun & Zhao, Shunfan & Zheng, Shize & Zhang, Fukai & Li, Zefeng & Gao, Xu & Wang, Ying, 2025. "Assessing the potential impact of aerosol scenarios for rooftop PV regional deployment," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    5. Feng, Xiaofan & Zhang, Zhengjia & Chen, Qi & Guo, Zhiling & Zhang, Haoran & Wang, Mengmeng & Gao, Wei & Liu, Xiuguo, 2025. "Integrating remote sensing, GIS, and multi-criteria decision making for assessing PV potential in mountainous regions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    6. Yang, Yuting & Zha, Donglan & Wu, Yihui, 2026. "City-level photovoltaic deployment roadmap in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    7. Zhang, Zumeng & Ding, Liping & Wang, Chaofan & Dai, Qiyao & Shi, Yin & Zhao, Yujia & Zhu, Yuxuan, 2022. "Do operation and maintenance contracts help photovoltaic poverty alleviation power stations perform better?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    8. Xiao, Sheng & Ren, He & Zhao, Yanling & He, Tingting & Huang, Chunlin & Chen, Qixiang & Zhang, Lifan & An, Yifan & Li, Fashuai & Chen, Yuwei, 2025. "Land reuse for carbon mitigation: Decarbonization potential of solar photovoltaics in China's open-pit mining areas," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    9. Tao, Linwei & Hayashi, Kiichiro & Gyeltshen, Sangay & Shimoyama, Yuya, 2025. "Spatial assessment of utility-scale solar photovoltaic siting potential using machine learning approaches: A case study in Aichi prefecture, Japan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 383(C).
    10. Huang, Xi & Pan, Guangsheng & Gu, Wei & Gu, Zhongfan, 2026. "Risk analysis and responses of PV output extreme in China's whole county PV program," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    11. Wang, Peng-Tao & Xu, Qing-Chuang & Wang, Fei-Yin & Xu, Mao, 2025. "Study on the coupling of the iron and steel industry with renewable energy for low-carbon production: A case study of matching steel plants with photovoltaic power plants in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    12. Zhang, Hao & Song, Yan & Zhang, Ming & Duan, Ye & Zhao, Danning, 2025. "Ecological environmental impact assessment of photovoltaic and "photovoltaic +" development in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    13. Hengtian Wang & Xiaolong Yang & Xinxin Xu & Liu Fei, 2021. "Exploring Opportunities and Challenges of Solar PV Power under Carbon Peak Scenario in China: A PEST Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-28, May.
    14. Yang, Liwen & Jiang, Luguang & Liu, Ye, 2026. "More than doubled in 2023: Mapping the photovoltaic power plants in China based on satellite data and machine learning," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(PF).
    15. Yuan, Qiuling & Meng, Fanxin & Li, Weijiao & Lin, Jianyi & Puppim de Oliveira, Jose A. & Yang, Zhifeng, 2025. "Tradeoff optimization of urban roof systems oriented to food-water-energy nexus," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 380(C).
    16. Wang, Tiantian & Wang, Yanhua & Wang, Ke & Fu, Sha & Ding, Li, 2024. "Five-dimensional assessment of China's centralized and distributed photovoltaic potential: From solar irradiation to CO2 mitigation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
    17. Zhang, Kai & Chen, Min & Yang, Yue & Zhong, Teng & Zhu, Rui & Zhang, Fan & Qian, Zhen & Lü, Guonian & Yan, Jinyue, 2022. "Quantifying the photovoltaic potential of highways in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    18. Sofia Spyridonidou & Eva Loukogeorgaki & Dimitra G. Vagiona & Teresa Bertrand, 2022. "Towards a Sustainable Spatial Planning Approach for PV Site Selection in Portugal," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-22, November.
    19. Mladen Bošnjaković & Robert Santa & Zoran Crnac & Tomislav Bošnjaković, 2023. "Environmental Impact of PV Power Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-26, August.
    20. Zhu, Yingqi & Chuai, Xiaowei & Ji, Xuepeng, 2026. "Photovoltaic land occupation pattern analysis and comprehensive assessment of carbon emission reduction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(PH).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:163:y:2026:i:c:s0264837726000049. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joice Jiang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/land-use-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.