Reimagining land use policies: Carbon trade-offs between urbanization and ecological restoration

Climate change necessitates effective carbon sequestration strategies, with forests as vital natural carbon sinks. However, rapid urbanization, agricultural expansion, and deforestation have disrupted land use and land cover (LULC) patterns, threatening carbon storage capacities worldwide. This study is a spatio-temporal analysis of urban expansion and land use dynamics using the Google Earth Engine and predictive models. Over three decades, forest cover expanded by 55 % (3540.45 km² to 5457.11 km²), driven by afforestation initiatives like the Billion Tree Tsunami Project (BTTP), increasing carbon storage from 122.641 × 10⁶ Mg to 189.034 × 10⁶ Mg. Conversely, croplands declined by 13.6 %, resulting in a carbon loss of 10.084 × 10⁶ Mg, while rangelands decreased by 19.02 %, leading to a 37.487 × 10⁶ Mg reduction due to urbanization and agricultural expansion. Built-up areas surged by 347 %, significantly depleting carbon stocks through conversions of agricultural and rangeland. Wetlands saw a modest carbon gain of 2.283 × 10⁶ Mg, whereas bareland decreased by 4.964 × 10⁶ Mg. The study highlights the dual challenges of urban growth and land use conversion, alongside the transformative role of large-scale afforestation in enhancing regional carbon stocks. Integrating remote sensing and the InVEST model, this research provides precise carbon storage estimates across LULC classes, offering critical insights into sustainable land management and climate change mitigation. The findings underscore the importance of balancing development with ecological preservation, demonstrating how afforestation can effectively counteract carbon losses and promote climate resilience.