Is green gentrification a pernicious paradox in the urban greening process?

Urban greening is anticipated to yield significant benefits for city dwellers. However, if the distribution of these environmental enhancements is unequal, the expected positive benefits of urban greening will not be fully realized. Worse still, it may lead to the manifestation of environmental inequity and social conflicts. Ensuring social equity alongside environmental improvement is therefore crucial. Green gentrification, being a dynamic process, poses considerable challenges for quantitative assessment and cross-regional comparative analysis. This study investigates the green gentrification within China’s three major urban agglomerations. By integrating the remote sensing data of urban greening with the micro-level demographic and socio-economic indicators, we employ the Propensity Score Matching-Difference in Differences method (PSM-DID) to quantify the potential gentrification effects caused by urban greening initiatives. Empirical results reveal the potential green gentrification in urban greening process, reflected in elevated proportions of residents with urban household registration and highly educated population, and rising residential land prices in greening sub-districts. The manifestation of gentrification exhibits divergent patterns among the three urban agglomerations. Notably, sub-districts with higher baseline greenness levels do not exhibit green gentrification. This study offers empirical evidence from the Global South, validating the green gentrification discourse within China’s top-down urban sustainability paradigm. It also presents a comparative analysis highlighting the heterogeneity of green gentrification outcomes. These findings hold important implications for urban planners and policymakers in China and other rapidly urbanizing Global South regions, calling for equitable green planning, phased greening strategies, and inclusive participatory processes to balance environmental upgrades with environmental justice.