Transforming neighborhoods: Dynamic effects of urban renewal on commercial gentrification in Shenzhen, China

Urban renewal has been a significant driver of transformation in urban environments, yet its effects on commercial settings remain understudied. The limited attention to the multi-period characteristics of urban renewal restricts our understanding of how it impacts the commercial establishments serving local neighborhoods. This paper examines the progression of commercial gentrification during urban renewal, focusing on over 700 urban renewal projects in Shenzhen from 2019 to 2023. It analyzes the impact of four key stages of urban renewal on the composition, diversity, and quality of commercial establishments within and surrounding renewal areas. The findings show that the progression of commercial gentrification is collectively influenced by dynamic shifts in supply and demand throughout the renewal process. In the renewal area, commercial gentrification begins during the developer confirmation phase of renewal and intensifies significantly following its completion. As a result of spillover effects, commercial gentrification occurs in surrounding neighborhoods earlier than it does in the renewal area, resulting in different patterns over time. This study highlights significant variations in the effects of urban renewal on commercial gentrification across different areas and stages, providing nuanced insights into the dynamics of this process. It also emphasizes the need to balance development with inclusivity in rapidly urbanizing regions.