New quality productive forces and new-type urbanization: Analysis of coupling coordination and influencing factors in China

China is currently in a pivotal phase of innovation and upgrading traditional industries, as well as transforming urbanization towards a high-quality model. The New Quality Productive Forces (NQPF) are poised to redefine the trajectory of China's New-Type Urbanization (NTU). However, the internal laws of spatial patterns and the determinants of their interactions still require further exploration. This study develops a multi-dimensional index system and calculates the weights. It then employs various analytical tools, including the coupling coordination degree model (CCDM), geographical detector, geographically weighted regression model, and time prediction model, to systematically examine the coupling coordination mechanism between NQPF and NTU in 283 prefecture-level cities nationwide. The levels of NQPF and NTU both exhibited a steady growth trend, and their spatial patterns both displayed an east-high and west-low gradient, closely correlating with the socio-economic levels of cities. The CCD in China's urban increased from 0.476 in 2000–0.665 in 2022, with the Northeast, Central, and Western regions consistently below the Eastern region. The gap in CCD levels among these four major regions continued to widen, and predictions indicate that this disparity will persist until 2030. The development level of NTU has become the main obstacle to enhancing the CCD, with social and space urbanization posing the greatest obstacles. Among the influencing factors, eight indicators such as the number of manufacturing employees can effectively improve the coupling coordination level. Non-linear interaction among dust emissions, waste gas emissions, and other indicators can enhance the CCD, while the action coefficients of 12 typical indicators show significant spatial heterogeneity due to regional resource endowment differences. The research results provide theoretical support for resolving the structural contradictions in the development of NQPF and NTU, and offer path guidance for the coordinated and mutually-promoting progress of China's productivity innovation and urbanization leap-forward development.