Telecoupling China's rice production: features and causes

China accounts for a quarter of the world's rice production and thus significantly impacts world rice markets and food security. In recent decades, rice production in southern China has declined consistently, and the causes have been widely discussed, but the impact from rice production in northeast China has not yet been analyzed. Based on telecoupling theory, this study utilized an econometric model to explore the relationship between rice production in northeast and southern China. The results showed that northeast rice production accelerated the decline of southern rice production and the lower the profits of alternative crops to rice in the northeast and the higher the profits of alternative crops to rice in the southern, the greater the crowding-out effect, which promotes the shift of rice production to low agricultural opportunity cost regions with superior natural conditions and resource endowments. Northeast China's rice production showed an absolute crowding-out effect when rice was oversupplied and a relative crowding-out effect when rice was undersupplied. The lowest rice purchase price policy weakened the crowding-out effect but pushed up rice stock. Furthermore, the arable land requisition–compensation balance policy reversed the downhill trend in southern rice production and promoted rice abandonment. This research extends the understanding of inter-system relationships under different preconditions and policy interventions according to telecoupling theory and provides valuable insights for optimizing the spatial distribution of rice production and related policy reforms in China.