Complex relationships between large-scale land acquisitions, deforestation, and land zoning policies in agricultural frontiers

The study of large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) has emerged as a subject of research aimed at understanding the dynamics of land use change. However, studies of the links between LSLAs, deforestation, and zoning policies, important to better understand land use change dynamics, are scarce. The Chaco region in South America is a paradigmatic example of a deforestation hotspot and the rapid expansion of agricultural frontiers to supply commodities for the global economy. Using spatially explicit information on Geographic Information Systems and time lagged cross-correlation functions, we analyzed links between LSLAs, deforestation, and zoning policies in a portion of the Chaco region in Salta, Argentina, in the period 1998–2021. We show that the links between LSLAs and deforestation are more complex than initially thought. LSLAs are often one of the drivers of deforestation, but we also found that several acquisitions target already deforested land. Investor behavior is also complex. Local or regional investors seem more interested in forested land than international ones, who are more risk-averse and seek shorter term profits. Some local companies specialize in buying land to build infrastructure and sell it back to another local or international company that will ultimately oversee the production stages. We also show in this paper that restrictions imposed by the Forest Law encouraged medium- to large-scale companies to acquire land that was already in production or with government-approved land use plans, aiming to reduce uncertainty and time-consuming bureaucratic processes triggered by the new law. The results of this study could help understand investor behavior and land governance processes in this region. The Land Matrix Initiative database, together with statistical analysis and satellite images showing land use cover and land use change processes, offers valuable information to study dynamics and patterns of land use change at several geographic scales.