Revealing land use dynamics in armed-conflict hotspots in North-East Nigeria using earth observation data

Armed conflicts are potent drivers of land use and land cover (LULC) change, yet little is known about how conflict intensity shapes land use, population displacement, and socioeconomic shifts in Nigeria, where ongoing violence continues to reshape both landscapes and livelihoods. This study integrates geospatial datasets from 2000 to 2024, including armed conflict data, satellite imagery, multi-source Earth Observation (EO) data, and population statistics to assess the impacts of armed conflicts on LULC dynamics and socioeconomic activities in conflict hotspots in North-east Nigeria using automated spatiotemporal geospatial and statistical analyses. Conflict intensity and fatalities have escalated since 2010, with Maiduguri, Bama, Gwoza, Damboa, and Monguno in Borno State identified as key hotspots. Significant conflict-driven land use changes include the conversion of farmland into internally displaced persons (IDP) camps, unexpected transformation of built-up areas into shrublands as a result of building destruction, and cropland abandonment. These effects are most severe in Bama, where population size and building presence declined sharply in 2015 and 2017, respectively. The rise in IDP camps in Maiduguri and Monguno is a major driver of LULC change and population growth. Also, increased armed conflict events are associated with a decline in nighttime luminosity, with evidence of a significant negative correlation between armed clashes and nighttime lights in the conflict hotspots. These findings reveal how conflict disrupts livelihoods and governance, transforming land use systems and population patterns. This research contributes to land governance and post-conflict recovery planning by offering data-driven insights for policymakers, humanitarian organisations, and researchers addressing the consequences of armed conflict on land, people, and food security. Strengthened peacebuilding efforts are essential to restore security and stabilize livelihoods and food systems.