Zoning and spatial resilience: Land use and food security in the Ili River Valley, China

Accurately delineating resilient cropland protection space is crucial for ensuring national food security and sustainable agriculture. However, existing studies offer limited insights into the spatial resilience of land-use systems under food security constraints. This study addresses this gap by developing a "positioning–quantification–zoning" framework for resilient cropland protection in the ecologically fragile Ili River Valley (IRV) in China. Our framework integrates cropland retention, population forecasting, the Pressure-State-Response model, restricted cubic spline analysis, and the PLUS land use simulation model. By coupling temporal trends with developmental constraints, we quantitatively evaluate spatial resilience, predict future population and cropland requirements, and delineate resilient zones. Our results reveal that: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the IRV's spatial resilience initially increased before declining, with low-resilience areas covering over 39.22 % of the region; high-resilience zones are predominantly located in the northern and southern mountainous regions, while low-resilience areas are mainly found in the piedmont plains and peripheral regions. (2) Under a high total fertility rate scenario, the IRV population is projected to reach 3.62 million by 2030, leading to a cropland deficit of approximately 19,774 ha. (3) Cropland is classified into five zones—priority conservation, flexible balance, fallow rotation, strategic reserve, and remediation zones—with tailored management strategies recommended for each. These findings offer valuable insights for enhancing regional resilience, optimizing agricultural structure, and refining land use policies under food security constraints.