A land use policy analysis method for natural hazard risk management across a regional single-family housing inventory

Managing a region’s natural hazard risk while also meeting demands for new development can be challenging. New development supports local governments’ tax revenues and other economic activities but may also lead to longer-term natural hazard losses if new construction is left unrestricted. Government entities commonly use land use policies to influence the location of new development. We developed a new land use policy analysis method that aims to assist planners and risk managers in disaster risk management by evaluating long-term housing development outcomes under different land use policy scenarios to reduce long-term natural hazard impacts. The computational method analyzes the spatial distribution of new housing, expected natural hazard losses, and property tax revenue impacts for a multidecadal projection period and multi-county region under alternative regional land use policy scenarios. While different risk management land use scenarios can be generated using this analysis method, we illustrate the method’s usefulness by comparing baseline housing development patterns with three disaster risk management land use policy scenarios in eastern North Carolina. These 30-year projections can inform planners and risk managers about how land use decisions can alter their region and their state’s vulnerabilities to natural hazard losses as well as the expected changes in property tax revenues.