Improving the visibility of waterway events influencing traffic along the Rhine, Main, and Danube

The market share of inland waterway transport (IWT) in Europe has declined to its lowest levels in the past decade, in part due to waterway events that, from an operational perspective, are often linked to inadequate infrastructure and a lack of coordinated efforts to ensure the fulfillment of minimum waterway requirements for efficient navigation. While most research has focused on large-scale disruptions and long-term trends, the effects of smaller-scale daily or hourly events on major inland waterways, despite offering valuable insights into the complex dynamics of IWT operations, remain understudied. This study introduces a novel method for extracting detailed information on fairway conditions and traffic from Notices to Skippers. Using negative binomial regression models across different geographical levels, we analyze the effects of both short- and long-term events on IWT traffic, using daily vessel passages at lock systems as a proxy for traffic intensity. Our findings reveal that many critical events in inland waterways are short-lived, typically lasting only one to two days. Moreover, localized events in individual waterway sections can influence the broader network, highlighting the interconnected nature of European IWT systems and the need for comprehensive network-wide transport strategies. We also find that even non-critical water level fluctuations at strategic locations affect traffic intensity in major waterway sections. By integrating high-resolution event data with traffic measures, our framework provides a robust tool for assessing both localized and system-wide impacts on IWT.