Spatiotemporal heterogeneity exploration in the effects of TOD structural characteristics on metro ridership: Evidence from Shanghai

Identifying the determinants of metro ridership is essential for enhancing the quality of Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) and ultimately achieving sustainable urban development. While previous studies have predominantly focused on exploring the factors contributing to the formation of TOD, few have examined the reverse impact of TOD structural characteristics on metro ridership from a spatiotemporal perspective. The paper combines a Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) model with hierarchical cluster analysis, utilizing multi-source data from 288 metro station areas in Shanghai, China, to explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the effects of TOD structural characteristics on metro ridership. The TOD structural characteristic is quantified based on three key components, the node, place, and their dynamic feedback, demographic indicators are incorporated to provide a more comprehensive analysis. The results reveal considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the TOD-metro ridership relationship. Specifically, the ‘node’ and ‘place’ indicators contribute most at stations in surrounding suburban areas, ‘feedback’ indicators are more significant in both western and eastern corridors, ‘demographic’ indicators such as population density shapes ridership most in the northeast, while housing prices matter more in the northwest and southeast. While in the city center, the effects are more balanced. Furthermore, catering service and workplace service are two major drivers of metro ridership, and showing consistently positive impacts during morning and evening peaks. Besides, our study challenges the view that land use diversity generally benefits metro ridership. Finally, distinct TOD clusters are identified based on the relative impact of TOD structural characteristics with implications for fostering high-quality TOD development.