Transit-driven resilience: Unraveling post-COVID-19 urban recovery dynamics

Transit-oriented communities (TOCs), characterized by compact, walkable designs and convenient access to public transportation, have historically been inclusive, resilient, and desirable places to reside. The global COVID-19 pandemic disrupted established transportation patterns, reshaping neighborhood activity and potentially altering the appeal of TOCs. This study examines the resilience of neighborhoods surrounding subway stations in Toronto post-pandemic, comparing their recovery trajectories with control neighborhoods and exploring associated factors. Using regression model and leveraging location-based services (LBS) data from mobile phones, we assess activity levels in 2023 relative to pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Our findings suggest that, despite ongoing ridership challenges, neighborhoods near transit stations in Toronto exhibited faster recovery than those farther away, reflecting associations with transit proximity, land-use diversity, and socio-economic characteristics. The presence of industries such as accommodation, food services, arts, entertainment, healthcare, and education near transit stations was linked to a diverse economic landscape, potentially sustaining vibrant commercial areas amid shocks. Conversely, neighborhoods with a higher prevalence of workplaces for sectors with remote work potential showed slower recovery. Variables such as proximity to jobs and essential amenities, walkability, and shorter commute times were also strongly associated with higher recovery rates. These findings offer actionable insights for policymakers and urban planners, highlighting the importance of integrating public transit with diverse land uses, socio-economic attributes, and equitable urban policies to support sustainable and resilient neighborhoods in the face of future crises.