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Assessing the impact of tax systems on investment incentives in future marine minerals projects on the Norwegian Continental Shelf

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  • Hagspiel, Verena
  • Jonsbråten, Ådne
  • Lesage, Maxime
  • Minge, Filip Fremo
  • Mustafina, Farida

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of two principally different tax systems on potential investment decision-making in marine minerals projects, using the Norwegian Continental Shelf as a case study. The exploration phase of a project is modeled as a multistage decision process through which a company acquires information to reduce geological uncertainties about potential deposits. At different decision gates, the company decides whether it is optimal to continue exploration or abandon the deposits based on their expected economic viability. A dynamic valuation framework is used to evaluate the impact of potential tax systems on corporate decision-making concerning both the exploration of deposits and the project value resulting from the extraction of deposits. Specifically, a standard corporate tax system and variations of the Norwegian petroleum tax system are compared.

Suggested Citation

  • Hagspiel, Verena & Jonsbråten, Ådne & Lesage, Maxime & Minge, Filip Fremo & Mustafina, Farida, 2025. "Assessing the impact of tax systems on investment incentives in future marine minerals projects on the Norwegian Continental Shelf," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:39:y:2025:i:c:s2405851325000418
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100497
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