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How financial markets respond to climate policy uncertainty: A dynamic resilience analysis

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  • Yao, Xiaoyang
  • Maimaitijiang, Sairidaer
  • Li, Jianfeng
  • Le, Wei

Abstract

In the context of the global transition to a sustainable development, focusing on the impact of climate policy uncertainty (CPU) on financial markets is important to prevent green swan events. This paper analyzes the resilience of major stock and commodities markets to CPU shocks from the perspectives of absorption intensity and duration, which imply the ability to withdraw the shocks and recover from them, respectively. Based on these two aspects, we construct a resilience index and explore the impacts of macroeconomic conditions on resilience. We find that most markets exhibit negative responses to CPU shocks, except for natural gas and precious metals. Most markets’ resilience to CPU has intensified, whereas, traditional energy sectors and the agricultural commodities market still shown the most vulnerability to CPU shocks. Compared to negative causality, the macro-economic conditions show higher level of positive causality to resilience. An increase in macro-economic uncertainty can exacerbate the deterioration of market resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Yao, Xiaoyang & Maimaitijiang, Sairidaer & Li, Jianfeng & Le, Wei, 2025. "How financial markets respond to climate policy uncertainty: A dynamic resilience analysis," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:39:y:2025:i:c:s2405851325000340
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100490
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    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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