News and the Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate, 1931-1933: The End of the Gold Standard, Imperialism, and the Great Depression
According to the efficient market hypothesis, news in Tokyo is responsible for the exchange rate changes during the Tokyo market hours, while the U.S. news is responsible for changes in the New York hours. The intra-daily dynamics of the $/yen exchange rate from December 1931 to November 1933 is analyzed. Japan's decision to go off gold in December 1931 depreciated yen by 30% in a month, mostly in the Tokyo market. During 1932, the yen depreciated another 30%, mainly due to Japan's aggression in China and resulting diplomatic isolation. In 1933, the yen appreciated against the dollar, mainly in the New York market, due to the U.S. decision to go off gold. However, exchange rate volatility and its sensitivity to news declined over the two year period, because of increasing capital controls. Changes in the interest rate differential was found insignificant for the changes in the exchange rate. Political regime changes, such as a decision to go off gold, most influenced the exchange rate for the period considered. There were no policy decisions by Japan to cause yen depreciation to promote export and limit import in 1931-33.
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Volume (Year): 7 (1993)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
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- Takatoshi Ito & V. Vance Roley, 1986.
"News from the U. S. and Japan: Which Moves the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate?,"
NBER Working Papers
1853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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NBER Working Papers
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