IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v184y2026ics0378426625002377.html

Effectiveness of warning signal and overconfident investors

Author

Listed:
  • Inghelbrecht, Koen
  • Tedde, Mariachiara

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of the MiFID-mandated warning signal on curbing excessive trading behavior among investors. According to MiFID regulations, brokers must warn investors when a financial product is deemed inappropriate. Our theoretical model proposes that an effective warning signal can reduce investors demand for risky assets, thereby lowering transaction costs and potentially reducing broker profit. Furthermore, a salient warning signal may improve investors payoffs. Using a regression discontinuity design and a unique brokerage dataset, our empirical analysis confirms these propositions. We find that an effective warning signal is associated with reduced excessive trading, lower transaction costs, and, to some extent, better investor performance. Additionally, we examine the influence of investor overconfidence in financial literacy on the signal effectiveness, finding that overconfidence (partially) counteracts the signal impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Inghelbrecht, Koen & Tedde, Mariachiara, 2026. "Effectiveness of warning signal and overconfident investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:184:y:2026:i:c:s0378426625002377
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107617
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426625002377
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107617?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 2006. "Information Acquisition and Portfolio Performance," CeRP Working Papers 52, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    2. Stefano Gagliarducci & Tommaso Nannicini & Paolo Naticchioni, 2011. "Electoral Rules and Politicians' Behavior: A Micro Test," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 144-174, August.
    3. Brad M Barber & Yi-Tsung Lee & Yu-Jane Liu & Terrance Odean & Ke Zhang, 2020. "Learning, Fast or Slow," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 61-93.
    4. Andreas Hellmann & Chiing Yeow & Lurion De Mello, 2017. "The influence of textual presentation order and graphical presentation on the judgements of non-professional investors," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(4), pages 455-470, June.
    5. D’Hondt, Catherine & De Winne, Rudy & Merli, Maxime, 2021. "Do retail investors bite off more than they can chew? A close look at their return objectives," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 879-902.
    6. Terrance Odean., 1996. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Trader Are Above Average," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-266, University of California at Berkeley.
    7. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2008. "Planning and Financial Literacy: How Do Women Fare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 413-417, May.
    8. Meir Statman & Steven Thorley & Keith Vorkink, 2006. "Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1531-1565.
    9. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2009. "Sensation Seeking, Overconfidence, and Trading Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 549-578, April.
    10. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 2005. "Awareness and Stock Market Participation," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 9(4), pages 537-567.
    11. Annamaria Lusardi, 2008. "Financial Literacy: An Essential Tool for Informed Consumer Choice?," NFI Working Papers 2008-WP-13, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    12. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    13. Barber, Brad M. & Odean, Terrance, 2004. "Are individual investors tax savvy? Evidence from retail and discount brokerage accounts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1-2), pages 419-442, January.
    14. Annamaria Lusardi, 2019. "Financial literacy and the need for financial education: evidence and implications," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-8, December.
    15. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    16. David S. Lee & Enrico Moretti & Matthew J. Butler, 2004. "Do Voters Affect or Elect Policies? Evidence from the U. S. House," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(3), pages 807-859.
    17. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, April.
    18. Catherine D'Hondt & Patrick Roger, 2017. "Investor sentiment and stock return predictability: The power of ignorance," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 38(2), pages 7-37.
    19. Hoffmann, Arvid O.I. & Shefrin, Hersh, 2014. "Technical analysis and individual investors," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 487-511.
    20. Bellofatto, Anthony & D’Hondt, Catherine & De Winne, Rudy, 2018. "Subjective financial literacy and retail investors’ behavior," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 168-181.
    21. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
    22. Inghelbrecht, Koen & Tedde, Mariachiara, 2024. "Overconfidence, financial literacy and excessive trading," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 152-195.
    23. Benos, Alexandros V., 1998. "Aggressiveness and survival of overconfident traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 353-383, September.
    24. Borozan, Miloš & Loreta, Cannito & Riccardo, Palumbo, 2022. "Eye-tracking for the study of financial decision-making: A systematic review of the literature," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    25. Gärling, Tommy & Kirchler, Erich & Lewis, Alan & van Raaij, Fred, 2009. "Psychology, Financial Decision Making, and Financial Crises," Sustainable Investment and Corporate Governance Working Papers 2009/7, Sustainable Investment Research Platform.
    26. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1887-1934 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
    28. Merkle, Christoph, 2017. "Financial overconfidence over time: Foresight, hindsight, and insight of investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 68-87.
    29. Forbes, William & Hudson, Robert & Skerratt, Len & Soufian, Mona, 2015. "Which heuristics can aid financial-decision-making?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-210.
    30. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2014. "The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 5-44, March.
    31. Imbens, Guido W. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2008. "Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 615-635, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Inghelbrecht, Koen & Tedde, Mariachiara, 2024. "Overconfidence, financial literacy and excessive trading," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 152-195.
    2. D’Hondt, Catherine & De Winne, Rudy & Merli, Maxime, 2021. "Do retail investors bite off more than they can chew? A close look at their return objectives," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 879-902.
    3. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2009. "Which past returns affect trading volume?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, February.
    4. Venkata Narasimha Chary Mushinada & Venkata Subrahmanya Sarma Veluri, 2020. "Self-attribution, Overconfidence and Dynamic Market Volatility in Indian Stock Market," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(4), pages 970-989, August.
    5. Kenneth Yung & Yen-Chih Liu, 2009. "Implications of futures trading volume: Hedgers versus speculators," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(5), pages 318-337, December.
    6. Andreas Oehler & Julian Schneider, 2023. "Social trading: do signal providers trigger gambling?," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1269-1331, May.
    7. Helen X. H. Bao & Steven Haotong Li, 2016. "Overconfidence And Real Estate Research: A Survey Of The Literature," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-24, September.
    8. Liu, Hongqi & Peng, Cameron & Xiong, Wei A. & Xiong, Wei, 2022. "Taming the bias zoo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 716-741.
    9. Mushinada, Venkata Narasimha Chary, 2020. "Are individual investors irrational or adaptive to market dynamics?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    10. Forman, John & Horton, Joanne, 2019. "Overconfidence, position size, and the link to performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 291-309.
    11. Liu, Hongqi & Peng, Cameron & Wei, Xiong & Wei, Xiong, 2022. "Taming the bias zoo," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 109301, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Carlos Cueva Herrero & Iñigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe Kortajarene & Giovanni Ponti & Josefa Tomás Lucas, 2017. "Boys will (still) be boys: Gender differences in trading activity are not due to differences in confidence," Working Papers. Serie AD 2017-06, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    13. Bellofatto, Anthony & Broihanne, Marie-Hélène & D'Hondt, Catherine, 2019. "Appetite for information and trading behavior," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2019002, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    14. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    15. Oliver Gloede & Lukas Menkhoff, 2014. "Financial Professionals' Overconfidence: Is It Experience, Function, or Attitude?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(2), pages 236-269, March.
    16. Orhan ERDEM & Evren ARIK & Serkan YÜKSEL, 2014. "Trading Puzzle, Puzzling Trade," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 29(345), pages 83-102.
    17. Jaya M. Prosad & Sujata Kapoor & Jhumur Sengupta & Saurav Roychoudhary, 2017. "Overconfidence and Disposition Effect in Indian Equity Market: An Empirical Evidence," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(5), pages 1303-1321, October.
    18. Biljana N. Adebambo & Xuemin (Sterling) Yan, 2018. "Investor Overconfidence, Firm Valuation, and Corporate Decisions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(11), pages 5349-5369, November.
    19. Liu, Hongqi & Peng, Cameron & Xiong, Wei A. & Xiong, Wei, 2020. "Resolving the excessive trading puzzle: an integrated approach based on surveys and transactions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118870, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Jitender Kumar & Neha Prince, 2022. "Overconfidence bias in the Indian stock market in diverse market situations: an empirical study," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 13(6), pages 3031-3047, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • G53 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Financial Literacy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:184:y:2026:i:c:s0378426625002377. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.