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Borrowing on the wrong side of the tracks: Evidence from mortgage loan discontinuities

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  • Orlando, Anthony W.
  • Welke, Gerd

Abstract

How much does the liquidity of the secondary market matter for the pricing of the housing market? In this paper, we investigate a discontinuity in the supply of mortgages called the “conforming loan limit.” Mortgage loans smaller than this limit are eligible to be purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—and therefore, they are more easily underwritten and more readily supplied by lenders. Using county-level variation in this limit and a border discontinuity model with transaction-level data, we estimate that a 10% increase in this limit leads to a 3% to 4% increase in housing prices. We identify the transmission mechanism primarily at the intensive margins, as the higher conforming loan limit leads to larger individual loans and therefore a greater volume of total lending. We show evidence that this effect is likely driven by greater availability, rather than lower interest pricing, of conforming loans.

Suggested Citation

  • Orlando, Anthony W. & Welke, Gerd, 2025. "Borrowing on the wrong side of the tracks: Evidence from mortgage loan discontinuities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:176:y:2025:i:c:s0378426625000585
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107438
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage loans; Housing finance; Credit supply; Housing prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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