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Borrowing on the wrong side of the tracks: Evidence from mortgage loan discontinuities

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  • Orlando, Anthony W.
  • Welke, Gerd

Abstract

How much does the liquidity of the secondary market matter for the pricing of the housing market? In this paper, we investigate a discontinuity in the supply of mortgages called the “conforming loan limit.” Mortgage loans smaller than this limit are eligible to be purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—and therefore, they are more easily underwritten and more readily supplied by lenders. Using county-level variation in this limit and a border discontinuity model with transaction-level data, we estimate that a 10% increase in this limit leads to a 3% to 4% increase in housing prices. We identify the transmission mechanism primarily at the intensive margins, as the higher conforming loan limit leads to larger individual loans and therefore a greater volume of total lending. We show evidence that this effect is likely driven by greater availability, rather than lower interest pricing, of conforming loans.

Suggested Citation

  • Orlando, Anthony W. & Welke, Gerd, 2025. "Borrowing on the wrong side of the tracks: Evidence from mortgage loan discontinuities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:176:y:2025:i:c:s0378426625000585
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107438
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
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    5. Griffin, John M. & Kruger, Samuel & Maturana, Gonzalo, 2021. "What drove the 2003–2006 house price boom and subsequent collapse? Disentangling competing explanations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1007-1035.
    6. Anthony A. DeFusco & Andrew Paciorek, 2017. "The Interest Rate Elasticity of Mortgage Demand: Evidence from Bunching at the Conforming Loan Limit," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 210-240, February.
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    8. repec:hal:pseose:hal-01301589 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    10. Brent W. Ambrose & Michael LaCour‐Little & Anthony B. Sanders, 2004. "The Effect of Conforming Loan Status on Mortgage Yield Spreads: A Loan Level Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(4), pages 541-569, December.
    11. Lynn M. Fisher & Mike Fratantoni & Stephen D. Oliner & Tobias J. Peter, 2021. "Jumbo rates below conforming rates: When did this happen and why?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S2), pages 461-489, September.
    12. Adelino, Manuel & Schoar, Antoinette & Severino, Felipe, 2025. "Credit supply and house prices: Evidence from mortgage market segmentation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    13. David E. Rappoport, 2016. "Do Mortgage Subsidies Help or Hurt Borrowers?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-081, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Grundl, Serafin & Kim, You Suk, 2021. "The marginal effect of government mortgage guarantees on homeownership," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 75-89.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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