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Theoretical framework of systems design for the air transportation system including an inherently quantitative philosophy of scenario development


  • Ghosh, Robin
  • Schilling, Thomas
  • Wicke, Kai


This paper provides an overview of an inherently quantitative scenario philosophy for systems analysis and innovative concept design in the context of the Air Transportation System (ATS). A general perspective of the ATS is visualized in an “atomic model†with surrounding external scenario factors and the aircraft as the key connecting element between the main stakeholders: manufacturers, airlines, air navigation service providers (ANSPs) and airports. An iterative waterfall model is presented, which serves as a mental model of integration and decomposition over cascades of levels of detail from global scenario level to a single technology. The difference between classical scenario technique and a quantitative, yet participatory methodology of developing scenarios for the ATS is described. In order to integrate and decompose over a large span of levels of details, concept design and synthesis is as important as analysis. Further, quantitative scenario development may be considered as the synthesis of a skillful manipulation of a model deck. Scenario Gaming can be a method to simulate the settlement on requirements of complex socio-technological systems with multiple stakeholders and conflicting perspectives under radically changing boundary conditions. Scenario thinking can be an innovative and explorative instrument of participatory futurology, if not reduced to a mere “input for a tool chain†.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghosh, Robin & Schilling, Thomas & Wicke, Kai, 2017. "Theoretical framework of systems design for the air transportation system including an inherently quantitative philosophy of scenario development," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-67.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:58:y:2017:i:c:p:58-67
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016.09.007

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