IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v42y2026i3p724-735.html

The HEFTCom2024 winning model: A stacked CatBoost approach for probabilistic wind and solar power forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Olauson, Jon
  • Viotti, Olle
  • Huss, Jakob

Abstract

Effective energy trading requires probabilistic forecasts to quantify uncertainty and manage financial risk. In this paper, we describe our approach, which combines separate wind and solar models using a state-of-the-art stacked CatBoost framework. The effectiveness of this method was validated in the HEFTCom2024 competition, where it was the winning entry for forecasting and trading the combined generation of a 1200 MW offshore wind and 2400 MW solar portfolio in England. Key factors contributing to our success include the use of separate wind and solar power models, the incorporation of three different weather forecast datasets, no missed submissions (benchmark fills), and effective handling of a long-lasting cable issue for the offshore wind farm. Although the main focus was on the forecasting model, we also won the trading track. This is attributed mainly to our forecast accuracy, but our trading score exceeded expectations based on the trend in trading vs. the forecasting scores of co-competitors.

Suggested Citation

  • Olauson, Jon & Viotti, Olle & Huss, Jakob, 2026. "The HEFTCom2024 winning model: A stacked CatBoost approach for probabilistic wind and solar power forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 724-735.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:42:y:2026:i:3:p:724-735
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2026.02.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207026000269
    Download Restriction: Full text may be restricted for ScienceDirect subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2026.02.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Chen, Zhi & Gaba, Anil & Tsetlin, Ilia & Winkler, Robert L., 2022. "The M5 uncertainty competition: Results, findings and conclusions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1365-1385.
    2. Hong, Tao & Xie, Jingrui & Black, Jonathan, 2019. "Global energy forecasting competition 2017: Hierarchical probabilistic load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1389-1399.
    3. Fan Li & Hongzhen Wang & Dan Wang & Dong Liu & Ke Sun, 2025. "A Review of Wind Power Prediction Methods Based on Multi-Time Scales," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-47, March.
    4. Bojer, Casper Solheim & Meldgaard, Jens Peder, 2021. "Kaggle forecasting competitions: An overlooked learning opportunity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 587-603.
    5. Hong, Tao & Pinson, Pierre & Fan, Shu & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Troccoli, Alberto & Hyndman, Rob J., 2016. "Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 896-913.
    6. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
    7. Januschowski, Tim & Wang, Yuyang & Torkkola, Kari & Erkkilä, Timo & Hasson, Hilaf & Gasthaus, Jan, 2022. "Forecasting with trees," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1473-1481.
    8. Landry, Mark & Erlinger, Thomas P. & Patschke, David & Varrichio, Craig, 2016. "Probabilistic gradient boosting machines for GEFCom2014 wind forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1061-1066.
    9. Camal, S. & Teng, F. & Michiorri, A. & Kariniotakis, G. & Badesa, L., 2019. "Scenario generation of aggregated Wind, Photovoltaics and small Hydro production for power systems applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1396-1406.
    10. Jon Olauson & Mohd Nasir Ayob & Mikael Bergkvist & Nicole Carpman & Valeria Castellucci & Anders Goude & David Lingfors & Rafael Waters & Joakim Widén, 2016. "Net load variability in Nordic countries with a highly or fully renewable power system," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 1(12), pages 1-8, December.
    11. Stefano Alessandrini & Tyler McCandless, 2020. "The Schaake Shuffle Technique to Combine Solar and Wind Power Probabilistic Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Shengjie & Kang, Yanfei & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2024. "Combining probabilistic forecasts of intermittent demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(3), pages 1038-1048.
    2. Yang, Dazhi & van der Meer, Dennis, 2021. "Post-processing in solar forecasting: Ten overarching thinking tools," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Chen, Zhi & Gaba, Anil & Tsetlin, Ilia & Winkler, Robert L., 2022. "The M5 uncertainty competition: Results, findings and conclusions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1365-1385.
    4. Dumas, Jonathan & Wehenkel, Antoine & Lanaspeze, Damien & Cornélusse, Bertrand & Sutera, Antonio, 2022. "A deep generative model for probabilistic energy forecasting in power systems: normalizing flows," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    5. Browell, Jethro & van der Meer, Dennis & Kälvegren, Henrik & Haglund, Sebastian & Simioni, Edoardo & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Wang, Yi, 2026. "The hybrid renewable energy forecasting and trading competition 2024," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 709-723.
    6. Cameron Roach & Rob Hyndman & Souhaib Ben Taieb, 2021. "Non‐linear mixed‐effects models for time series forecasting of smart meter demand," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1118-1130, September.
    7. Kong, Xiangyu & Li, Chuang & Wang, Chengshan & Zhang, Yusen & Zhang, Jian, 2020. "Short-term electrical load forecasting based on error correction using dynamic mode decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    8. Han Su & Xiaojia Guo & Xiaoke Zhang, 2026. "Regularized Ensemble Forecasting for Learning Weights from Historical and Current Forecasts," Papers 2602.11379, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2026.
    9. Wen, Honglin & Pinson, Pierre & Gu, Jie & Jin, Zhijian, 2024. "Wind energy forecasting with missing values within a fully conditional specification framework," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 77-95.
    10. Roach, Cameron, 2019. "Reconciled boosted models for GEFCom2017 hierarchical probabilistic load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1439-1450.
    11. Buzna, Luboš & De Falco, Pasquale & Ferruzzi, Gabriella & Khormali, Shahab & Proto, Daniela & Refa, Nazir & Straka, Milan & van der Poel, Gijs, 2021. "An ensemble methodology for hierarchical probabilistic electric vehicle load forecasting at regular charging stations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    12. de Hoog, Julian & Abdulla, Khalid, 2019. "Data visualization and forecast combination for probabilistic load forecasting in GEFCom2017 final match," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1451-1459.
    13. Makridakis, Spyros & Hyndman, Rob J. & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2020. "Forecasting in social settings: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 15-28.
    14. Xu, Xiuqin & Chen, Ying & Goude, Yannig & Yao, Qiwei, 2021. "Day-ahead probabilistic forecasting for French half-hourly electricity loads and quantiles for curve-to-curve regression," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120774, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Long Cai & Jie Gu & Jinghuan Ma & Zhijian Jin, 2019. "Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting Approach via Instance-Based Transfer Learning Embedded Gradient Boosting Decision Trees," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, January.
    16. Lindberg, O. & Zhu, R. & Widén, J., 2024. "Quantifying the value of probabilistic forecasts when trading renewable hybrid power parks in day-ahead markets: A Nordic case study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(PB).
    17. Jethro Browell, 2017. "Risk Constrained Trading Strategies for Stochastic Generation with a Single-Price Balancing Market," Papers 1708.02625, arXiv.org.
    18. Hyndman, Rob J., 2020. "A brief history of forecasting competitions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 7-14.
    19. Ricardo J. Bessa & Corinna Möhrlen & Vanessa Fundel & Malte Siefert & Jethro Browell & Sebastian Haglund El Gaidi & Bri-Mathias Hodge & Umit Cali & George Kariniotakis, 2017. "Towards Improved Understanding of the Applicability of Uncertainty Forecasts in the Electric Power Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-48, September.
    20. Chen, Yuejiang & Xiao, Jiang-Wen & Wang, Yan-Wu & Luo, Yunfeng, 2025. "Non-crossing quantile probabilistic forecasting of cluster wind power considering spatio-temporal correlation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 377(PA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:42:y:2026:i:3:p:724-735. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.