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Election forecasting: Political economy models

Author

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  • Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
  • Kenny, John
  • Leiter, Debra
  • Murr, Andreas Erwin
  • Ogili, Onyinye B.
  • Stegmaier, Mary
  • Tien, Charles

Abstract

We draw globally on a major election forecasting tool, political economy models. Vote intention polls in pre-election public surveys are a widely known approach; however, the lesser-known political economy models take a different scientific tack, relying on regression analysis and voting theory, particularly the force of “fundamentals.” We begin our discussion with two advanced industrial democracies, the US and UK. We then examine two less frequently forecasted cases, Mexico and Ghana, to highlight the potential for political-economic forecasting and the challenges faced. In evaluating the performance of political economy models, we argue for their accuracy but do not neglect lead time, parsimony, and transparency. Furthermore, we suggest how the political economic approach can be adapted to the changing landscape that democratic electorates face.

Suggested Citation

  • Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Kenny, John & Leiter, Debra & Murr, Andreas Erwin & Ogili, Onyinye B. & Stegmaier, Mary & Tien, Charles, 2025. "Election forecasting: Political economy models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1655-1665.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:41:y:2025:i:4:p:1655-1665
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.02.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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