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ADM's APPLE: The Accelerated Deaths Model with an Application to the Covid-19 Pandemic

Author

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  • Cairns, Andrew J.G.
  • Blake, David

Abstract

The Accelerated Deaths Model (ADM) builds on the hypothesis that, within a given age cohort, those who are less healthy are more likely to die if infected with Covid-19 than healthier people, leaving a pool of on-average healthier survivors. We use the term ‘detrimental selection’ which has two complementary aspects: the years of life lost by those who experienced an accelerated death; and the higher average life expectancy of survivors which we call their ‘adjusted post-pandemic life expectancy’ (ADM's APPLE). Our model represents a novel synthesis of recent advances in our comprehension of mortality heterogeneity and the development of the Proportionality Hypothesis – both of which have improved our understanding of the Covid-19 pandemic. In particular, we identify an important positive relationship between mortality heterogeneity and accelerated deaths.

Suggested Citation

  • Cairns, Andrew J.G. & Blake, David, 2026. "ADM's APPLE: The Accelerated Deaths Model with an Application to the Covid-19 Pandemic," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:128:y:2026:i:c:s0167668726000211
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2026.103231
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