From weak to strong signals: Exploring R&D projects with research equipment

Weak signals have received growing attention as early indicators of future change, yet prior research has treated them as static indicators. Given their fragmented and uncertain nature, weak signals do not consistently evolve into strong signals. This study investigates whether weak signals can transition into strong ones, with particular attention to the role of research equipment. Building on TF-DoV–based analytical methods, we develop a longitudinal framework and analyze a decade of nationally funded R&D projects in the chemical sector. The results show that projects involving equipment exhibit a higher transition rate from weak to strong signals. This finding highlights the enabling role of equipment, functioning both as material infrastructure and as a cognitive foundation that facilitates the recognition and maturation of emerging topics. Overall, this study reconceptualizes weak signals as dynamic trajectories and demonstrates the catalytic influence of research equipment in their evolution. Further, it utilizes nationally funded R&D projects as a novel policy-relevant data source that captures emerging technological trajectories. These contributions advance the theoretical understanding of weak signals, extend methods for analyzing signal transitions, and provide practical guidance for R&D policy and strategy.