IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inecon/v157y2025ics0022199625000765.html

Commitment in the canonical sovereign default model

Author

Listed:
  • Mateos-Planas, Xavier
  • McCrary, Sean
  • Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor
  • Wicht, Adrien

Abstract

We study the role of lack of commitment in the canonical incomplete-markets sovereign default model of Eaton and Gersovitz (1981). We show the very different set of functional equations that appear under commitment relative to the standard ones. We document how in the standard yearly specification of Arellano (2008) with short-term debt there is no default if there is commitment to the circumstances of when to default. A bad enough disaster makes default under commitment appear. In contrast, with long-term debt, in the standard quarterly Chatterjee and Eyigungor (2012) environment commitment only to one-period-ahead default barely changes the no-commitment allocation, but commitment to both the one-period-ahead default circumstances and the one-period-ahead dilution, or commitment to a longer horizon (a year or a bit more), eliminates default completely and is equivalent to commitment in the one-period-ahead default with short-term debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Mateos-Planas, Xavier & McCrary, Sean & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor & Wicht, Adrien, 2025. "Commitment in the canonical sovereign default model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:157:y:2025:i:c:s0022199625000765
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104120
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199625000765
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104120?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Hugo Hopenhayn & Iván Werning, 2019. "Take the Short Route: Equilibrium Default and Debt Maturity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(2), pages 423-462, March.
    2. Satyajit Chatterjee & Dean Corbae & Kyle Dempsey & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2025. "Credit Scores and Inequality Across the Life Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2025, volume 40, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Daniel, Betty C. & Nam, Jinwook, 2022. "The Greek debt crisis: Excusable vs. strategic default," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    4. Maximiliano Dvorkin & Juan M. Sánchez & Horacio Sapriza & Emircan Yurdagul, 2021. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 26-77, April.
    5. Clausen, Andrew & Strub, Carlo, 2020. "Reverse Calculus and nested optimization," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    6. Liu, Yan & Marimon, Ramon & Wicht, Adrien, 2023. "Making sovereign debt safe with a financial stability fund," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    7. Anna Gelpern & Ugo Panizza, 2022. "Enough Potential Repudiation: Economic and Legal Aspects of Sovereign Debt in the Pandemic Era," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 545-570, August.
    8. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2012. "Maturity, Indebtedness, and Default Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2674-2699, October.
    9. Wicht, Adrien, 2025. "Seniority and sovereign default: The role of official multilateral lenders," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    10. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
    11. Dvorkin, Maximiliano & Sánchez, Juan M. & Sapriza, Horacio & Yurdagul, Emircan, 2022. "Improving sovereign debt restructurings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    12. Klaus Adam & Michael Grill, 2017. "Optimal Sovereign Default," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 128-164, January.
    13. Francisco Roch & Francisco Roldán, 2023. "Uncertainty Premia, Sovereign Default Risk, and State-Contingent Debt," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(2), pages 334-370.
    14. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
    15. Juan Hatchondo & Francisco Roch & Leonardo Martinez, 2019. "Constrained efficient borrowing with sovereign default risk," 2019 Meeting Papers 899, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Grossman, Herschel I & Van Huyck, John B, 1988. "Sovereign Debt as a Contingent Claim: Excusable Default, Repudiation, and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1088-1097, December.
    17. Demian Pouzo & Ignacio Presno, 2022. "Optimal Taxation with Endogenous Default under Incomplete Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 1-41, July.
    18. Alfaro, Laura & Kanczuk, Fabio, 2005. "Sovereign debt as a contingent claim: a quantitative approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 297-314, March.
    19. Debortoli, Davide & Nunes, Ricardo, 2010. "Fiscal policy under loose commitment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 1005-1032, May.
    20. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    21. Schumacher, Julian & Trebesch, Christoph & Enderlein, Henrik, 2021. "Sovereign defaults in court," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wicht, Adrien, 2025. "Seniority and sovereign default: The role of official multilateral lenders," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    2. Mallucci, Enrico, 2022. "Natural disasters, climate change, and sovereign risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo & Önder, Yasin Kürşat & Roch, Francisco, 2025. "Sovereign CoCos and debt forgiveness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    4. Thomas McGregor, 2019. "Pricing Sovereign Debt in Resource-Rich Economies," IMF Working Papers 2019/240, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch & Francisco Roldán & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2023. "Sovereign debt," Chapters, in: Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright (ed.), Research Handbook of Financial Markets, chapter 17, pages 378-405, Edward Elgar Publishing.
      • Mr. Leonardo Martinez & Mr. Francisco Roch & Francisco Roldán & Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2022. "Sovereign Debt," IMF Working Papers 2022/122, International Monetary Fund.
      • Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch & Francisco Roldan & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2022. "Sovereign Debt," Working Papers 167, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    6. Daniel, Betty C. & Nam, Jinwook, 2022. "The Greek debt crisis: Excusable vs. strategic default," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    7. Dvorkin, Maximiliano & Sánchez, Juan M. & Sapriza, Horacio & Yurdagul, Emircan, 2022. "Improving sovereign debt restructurings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    8. Thomas McGregor, 2017. "Pricing sovereign debt in resource rich economies," OxCarre Working Papers 194, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    9. Falko Juessen & Andreas Schabert, 2013. "Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Default, and Bailouts," Working Paper Series in Economics 67, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.
    10. Alfaro, Laura & Kanczuk, Fabio, 2009. "Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 23-36, February.
    11. Joao Ayres & Gaston Navarro & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles, 2019. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises with Long Stagnations," Working Papers 757, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    12. Marcos Chamon & Francisco Roldán, 2025. "Sovereign Debt Tolerance with Potentially Permanent Costs of Default," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 73(1), pages 118-149, March.
    13. Li, Lei & Mihalache, Gabriel, 2025. "Default and development," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    14. Toan Phan & Felipe Schwartzman, 2023. "Climate Defaults and Financial Adaptation," Working Paper 23-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    15. Esquivel, Carlos, 2024. "Underinvestment and capital misallocation under sovereign risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    16. Trebesch, Christoph & Zabel, Michael, 2017. "The output costs of hard and soft sovereign default," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 416-432.
    17. Stefan Niemann & Paul Pichler, 2020. "Optimal fiscal policy and sovereign debt crises," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 234-254, July.
    18. Phan, Toàn & Schwartzman, Felipe, 2024. "Climate defaults and financial adaptation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    19. Engler, Philipp & Große Steffen, Christoph, 2016. "Sovereign risk, interbank freezes, and aggregate fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 34-61.
    20. Tamon Asonuma & Hyungseok Joo, 2023. "Sovereign Defaults and Debt Restructurings: Public Capital and Fiscal Constraint Tightness," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0323, School of Economics, University of Surrey.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:157:y:2025:i:c:s0022199625000765. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.