How to promote green economic growth? A Study on the low-carbon effects of cross-border e-commerce under the dual “Carbon Policy”

In the context of China’s dual-carbon strategy, identifying the environmental effects of cross-border e-commerce on regional carbon emissions is of significant practical importance. Using provincial panel data from 2000 to 2023, this study constructs a comprehensive index of cross-border e-commerce development. It employs a two-way fixed-effects model to examine its impact on carbon emissions. The findings indicate that expanded cross-border e-commerce can help reduce regional carbon emissions, highlighting the potential of digital trade to support the green transition. Meanwhile, the results reveal a U-shaped relationship between cross-border e-commerce and carbon emissions, with early-stage development significantly reducing emissions, while advanced stages trigger a rebound effect driven by rising logistics and energy demands. Mechanism analysis further identifies industrial structure upgrading, energy structure optimization, and green technological innovation as the three primary transmission channels through which cross-border e-commerce affects carbon emissions. These findings have important policy implications for advancing green logistics systems, accelerating energy structure transformation, and enhancing the role of digital trade in low-carbon development.