IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v89y2026ics1544612325024171.html

US financial stress, regional spillovers, and global economic policy uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Rao, Amar
  • Bindabel, Wardah
  • Dagar, Vishal
  • Guesmi, Khaled

Abstract

We study how financial stress originating in the United States (US), Advanced Economies (ADV), and Emerging Markets (EM) relates to movements in Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU). Using monthly data for 2000–2024, we estimate horizon-specific responses to ΔEPU to one-standard-deviation innovations in ΔFinancial Stress Index (FSI) via Jordà (2005) local projections with four lags and standard controls ΔBloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), ΔFederal Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS), ΔU.S. Dollar Index (DollarIdx), ΔCBOE Volatility Index (VIX). Across regions, the impact coefficient is negative,indicating that stress shocks are associated with an immediate reduction in the month-over-month change of EPU. Beyond impact, responses are small in magnitude, yielding limited persistence; cumulative effects over six months are modest and typically encompassed by wide confidence bands. Taken together, the evidence suggests that policy-uncertainty index adjusts quickly to stress realizations, with little systematic propagation at monthly horizons. This transience is most consistent with information/communication channels whereby policy guidance and rapid market repricing compress subsequent uncertainty innovations, while allowing for regional heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Rao, Amar & Bindabel, Wardah & Dagar, Vishal & Guesmi, Khaled, 2026. "US financial stress, regional spillovers, and global economic policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:89:y:2026:i:c:s1544612325024171
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.109168
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612325024171
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2025.109168?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicholas Bloom, 2014. "Fluctuations in Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 153-176, Spring.
    2. Li, Yulong, 2024. "The nexus between local government debt risk, real estate sector, and financial stability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    3. Zhang, Wanjuan & Wang, Jing, 2025. "The role of associated risk in predicting financial distress: A case study of listed agricultural companies in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Tang, Ping & Yang, Wenshuai, 2024. "Monetary policy uncertainty and financial risk: The mediating role of corporate investment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    5. Beckmann, Joscha & Davidson, Sharada Nia & Koop, Gary & Schüssler, Rainer, 2023. "Cross-country uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from international survey data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    6. Zabavnik, Darja & Verbič, Miroslav, 2025. "Revisiting the impact of financial shocks on the fiscal position of euro area countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 622-635.
    7. Apostolakis, George N. & Floros, Christos & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Wohar, Mark, 2021. "Financial stress, economic policy uncertainty, and oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    8. Zhou, Yuqin & Liu, Zhenhua & Wu, Shan, 2022. "The global economic policy uncertainty spillover analysis: In the background of COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    9. Kaviani, Mahsa S. & Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Maleki, Hosein & Savor, Pavel, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and corporate credit spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 838-865.
    10. Hong, Yun & Zhang, Rushan & Zhang, Feipeng, 2024. "Time-varying causality impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock market returns: Global evidence from developed and emerging countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baris Kocaarslan & Ugur Soytas, 2025. "How do the reserve currency and uncertainties in major markets affect the uncertainty of oil prices over time?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 2016-2041, April.
    2. Emna Trabelsi, 2025. "Monetary Policy Under Global and Spillover Uncertainty Shocks: What Do the Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient VAR, Local Projections, and Vector Error Correction Model Tell Us in Tunisia?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-74, March.
    3. Theodora Bermpei & Antonios Nikolaos Kalyvas & Lorenzo Neri & Antonella Russo, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter for financial reporting quality? Evidence from the United States," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 795-845, February.
    4. Berger, Allen N. & Guedhami, Omrane & Kim, Hugh H. & Li, Xinming, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank liquidity hoarding," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    5. Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Danisman, Gamze Ozturk & Demir, Ender & Tarazi, Amine, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and bank stability: Conventional vs. Islamic banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    6. Hu, Lifang, 2025. "Maturity mismatch and disinvestment as transmission mechanisms: Linking economic policy uncertainty to firm performance," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(PB).
    7. Hodula, Martin & Škrabić Perić, Blanka & Sorić, Petar, 2023. "Economic uncertainty and non-bank financial intermediation: Evidence from a European panel," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    8. Gong, Di & Jiang, Tao & Li, Zhao & Wu, Weixing, 2022. "Optimal loan contracting under policy uncertainty: Theory and international evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Zhang, Jun & Chen, Donghui, 2024. "Time-frequency cross-country spillovers of climate policy uncertainty: Does it matter for financial risk?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    10. Baxa, Jaromír & Šestořád, Tomáš, 2025. "Common and country-specific uncertainty shocks in europe: Why their nature matters for policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    11. Benjamin Baker & Murat Üngör, 2025. "Effects of Quantitative Easing on Economic Sentiment: Evidence from Three Large Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 67(1), pages 50-83, March.
    12. Kiosses, Nikolaos & Leventis, Stergios & Subeniotis, Demetres & Tampakoudis, Ioannis, 2025. "The impact of policy uncertainty on shareholder wealth: Evidence from bank M&A," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    13. Colak, Gonul & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Loukopoulos, Panagiotis & Loukopoulos, Georgios, 2021. "Political power, local policy uncertainty and IPO pricing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Tran, Dung Viet & Hassan, M. Kabir & Alam, Ahmed W. & Pezzo, Luca & Abdul-Majid, Mariani, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty, agency problem, and funding structure: Evidence from U.S. banking industry," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    15. Binder, Carola & Ozturk, Ezgi & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2025. "The effects of inflation uncertainty on firms and the macroeconomy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    16. Che, Ming & Wang, Li & Li, Yujia, 2024. "Global economic policy uncertainty and oil price uncertainty: Which is more important for global economic activity?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    17. Das, Debojyoti & Bhatia, Vaneet & Kumar, Surya Bhushan & Basu, Sankarshan, 2022. "Do precious metals hedge crude oil volatility jumps?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    18. Chan, Yue-Cheong & Saffar, Walid & Wei, K.C. John, 2021. "How economic policy uncertainty affects the cost of raising equity capital: Evidence from seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    19. Yoshito Funashima, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and unconventional monetary policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(3), pages 278-292, June.
    20. Castro-Iragorri, Carlos & Gómez, Fabio & Quiceno, Nancy, 2024. "Worst-case higher moment risk measure: Addressing distributional shifts and procyclicality," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:89:y:2026:i:c:s1544612325024171. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.