IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v86y2025ipes1544612325020331.html

Housing presale systems and entrepreneurial default risk

Author

Listed:
  • Huang, Xianjing
  • Huang, Zhigang
  • Nie, Keyu

Abstract

This paper develops a general equilibrium model that integrates China’s real estate presale system with entrepreneurial default risk. We demonstrate that declining housing demand weakens entrepreneurs' balance sheets, elevating default probabilities. While the presale system mitigates price volatility in response to demand shocks compared to non-presale systems, it simultaneously increases real estate firms’ financial vulnerability. Furthermore, the presale system facilitates the diversion of presale proceeds within firms. This diversion of funds amplifies default risk induced by demand shocks by increasing financial leverage. Our policy analysis shows that while targeted bailouts can effectively contain risk, regulatory interventions must be carefully designed to be counter-cyclical, as pro-cyclical rules are found to significantly worsen financial distress during downturns.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Xianjing & Huang, Zhigang & Nie, Keyu, 2025. "Housing presale systems and entrepreneurial default risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(PE).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:86:y:2025:i:pe:s1544612325020331
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.108779
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612325020331
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2025.108779?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    2. Yongheng Deng & Peng Liu, 2009. "Mortgage Prepayment and Default Behavior with Embedded Forward Contract Risks in China’s Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 214-240, April.
    3. S. Wong & C. Yiu & M. Tse & K. Chau, 2006. "Do the Forward Sales of Real Estate Stabilize Spot Prices?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 289-304, May.
    4. Su Han Chan & Fang Fang & Jing Yang, 2008. "Presales, Financing Constraints and Developers?Production Decisions," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(3), pages 345-376.
    5. Robert Edelstein & Peng Liu & Fang Wu, 2012. "The Market for Real Estate Presales: A Theoretical Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 30-48, June.
    6. Xiang, Jingjie & Li, Li, 2022. "Monetary policy uncertainty, debt financing cost and real economic activities: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1025-1044.
    7. Su Chan & Fang Fang & Jing Yang, 2008. "Presales, Financing Constraints, and Developers' Production Decisions," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 345-376, January.
    8. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    9. L. Li & K. W. Chau, 2019. "What Motivates a Developer to Sell before Completion?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 209-232, August.
    10. Hu, Zhining, 2022. "Six types of government policies and housing prices in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    11. Su Han Chan & Fang Fang & Jing Yang, 2014. "Presales, Leverage Decisions and Risk Shifting," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 36(4), pages 475-510.
    12. Su Han Chan & Fang Fang & Jing Yang, 2014. "Presales, Leverage Decisions, and Risk Shifting," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 475-510, January.
    13. Bing Tong & Guang Yang, 2021. "Interest rate fixation, excessive fluctuations and exchange rate management in China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(26), pages 2993-3022, June.
    14. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    15. Su Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2012. "Presale Contract and its Embedded Default and Abandonment Options," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 116-152, January.
    16. Morris A. Davis, 2010. "housing and the business cycle," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Quan Gan & Maggie Rong Hu & Wayne Xinwei Wan, 2022. "Contract rescission in the real estate presale market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1054-1106, December.
    2. L. Li & K. W. Chau, 2019. "What Motivates a Developer to Sell before Completion?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 209-232, August.
    3. Edward Chan & Eddie C. M. Hui & Jianfu Shen & Liya Zhang, 2025. "Capital structure and financial distress in China’s real estate sector: a perspective from sales tournament," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Sami Alpanda & Sarah Zubairy, 2016. "Housing and Tax Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 485-512, March.
    5. Bahadir, Berrak & Mykhaylova, Olena, 2014. "Housing market dynamics with delays in the construction sector," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 94-108.
    6. Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2014. "House prices, capital inflows and macroprudential policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 337-355.
    7. Nguyen, Quoc Hung, 2018. "Revisiting housing and the business cycle," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 85-92.
    8. Guerrieri, V. & Uhlig, H., 2016. "Housing and Credit Markets," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1427-1496, Elsevier.
    9. William Gatt & Noel Rapa & Luca Brugnolini, 2020. "MEDSEA-FIN A DSGE model of the Maltese economy with housing and financial frictions," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2020, Central Bank of Malta.
    10. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Aaron Mehrotra & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2020. "Residential Investment and Economic Activity: Evidence from the Past Five Decades," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 287-329, December.
    11. Rots, Eyno, 2017. "Imperfect information and the house price in a general-equilibrium model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 215-231.
    12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2018. "On DSGE Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 113-140, Summer.
    13. Khan, Hashmat & Rouillard, Jean-François, 2018. "Household borrowing constraints and residential investment dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 1-18.
    14. Gong, Liutang & Wang, Chan & Zhao, Fuyang & Zou, Heng-fu, 2017. "Land-price dynamics and macroeconomic fluctuations with nonseparable preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 149-161.
    15. Forster, Robert & Sun, Xiaojin, 2022. "Taming the housing crisis: An LTV macroprudential policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    16. PIROVANO, Mara, 2013. "Household and firm leverage, capital flows and monetary policy in a small open economy," Working Papers 2013014, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    17. Andrew Lee Smith, 2013. "House Prices, Heterogeneous Banks and Unconventional Monetary Policy Options," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201311, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    18. Su Han Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2016. "The Pricing of Construction Loans," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(4), pages 411-434.
    19. Ekkehard Ernst & Faten Saliba, 2018. "Are House Prices Responsible for Unemployment Persistence?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 795-833, September.
    20. Liu, Chunping & Ou, Zhirong, 2024. "Has fiscal expansion inflated house prices in China? Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:86:y:2025:i:pe:s1544612325020331. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.